The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a near four-year low of 49.0 in May, from 50.7, suggests that weak global conditions are weighing on US producers. While the manufacturing sector is suffering, however, other sectors of the economy, particularly housing, are strengthening. The risks of a recession are low. Indeed, we expect GDP growth to pick up in the second half of this year.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.