Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 recovery supported by strengthening euro-zone The breakdown of GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe confirmed that the acceleration in growth seen in Q2 was largely a result of stronger demand from the euro-zone. But there were also... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s mining slowdown is inevitable Australia’s GDP growth remained slightly below trend in Q2. We expect growth to slow further over the coming quarters as the economy struggles to cope with cooling mining investment. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up further, but faces headwinds Business surveys point to a pick-up in global manufacturing activity in August. But while the recovery may gain further momentum in the coming months, it faces several headwinds, notably the... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) Another rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 28-month high of 55.7 in August, after the surge to 55.4 in July, suggests that the improvement in overseas activity is benefiting US producers. This... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: towards a sweet spot of faster growth and low inflation The severity of the slowdown in the Polish economy over the past 18 months took commentators and policymakers by surprise. The good news is that the slowdown appears to have been largely cyclical in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next move in Kenyan interest rates likely to be up African currencies have come under renewed pressure in August, with the South African rand and the Ghanaian cedi suffering more than most. But while currencies have weakened, local equity markets have... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currency weakness will not lead to inflation spike in Asia The recent sell-off in Asian currencies has sparked fears that the region is about to suffer a sharp spike in inflation. We think this is unlikely. While exchange rate depreciation can push up the... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul. 13) The latest CoreLogic house price reading added to the evidence that the pace of price gains is easing slightly. It’s possible that annual price growth will drop into the single- digit range by the end... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy turning the corner After slowing sharply over the past year or so, the Saudi economy appears to have turned the corner in Q2. The oil sector’s drag on growth is easing while government stimulus is starting to filter... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI signals modest improvement in manufacturing Our EM-wide PMI suggests that emerging market manufacturing improved a little last month. The recovery in the euro-zone in recent months appears to have boosted external demand, particularly in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (Aug.) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q2 13) August’s CIPS/Markit PMI indicated that developers anticipate a pick-up in occupier demand in the next few quarters, while the latest mergers and acquisitions (M&A) data were also encouraging. Our... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed poised to begin tapering Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies have remained exceptionally loose even as the Federal Reserve prepares to scale back QE3. 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy suffers in aftermath of “second revolution” August’s PMI data provide evidence that the Egyptian economy is still suffering following the country’s “second revolution”. Meanwhile, the Saudi non-oil economy has picked-up. 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Swiss Q2 GDP data revealed that activity continued to pick up pretty strongly. While modest export growth is likely to mean that the recovery is not particularly rapid, a healthy domestic economy... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
