Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q2 13) Icelandic GDP fell sharply in Q2. But behind the headline figure, the data confirmed that the economy is still on the road to recovery, albeit a long and tortuous one. 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Vodafone payout won’t top up the economy With Vodafone’s sale of its stake in the US telecoms company Verizon expected to deliver almost £24bn to UK investors, the potential impact has been compared to that of the Bank of England’s... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes balance between optimism and support President Draghi walked a tightrope today in acknowledging the nascent recovery while at the same time trying not to raise markets’ interest rate expectations. We think that he will fulfil his pledge... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Increase in first-time buyers stokes rise in house prices The region is restructuring, but not by enough to allow it to outperform the UK in the years ahead. We forecast 1.3% growth this year and 2% in 2014, matching the UK, but with longer run rates about 1... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's second-half showing likely to disappoint Following disruptions to energy output in the second half of last year, Canada's economy rebounded over the first half of this year, posting GDP growth of 2.2% and 1.7% annualised in the first and... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: solid start to Q3 could delay monetary easing Today’s IMACEC activity indicator revealed that Chile’s economy picked up pace at the start of Q3. This is unlikely to signal a turn in the economic cycle following two quarters of slowing growth, but... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Morocco and Tunisia to remain sluggish Signs of recovery in the euro-zone are encouraging for Morocco and Tunisia. But political problems and large twin fiscal and current account deficits will continue to cloud the economic outlook. 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Thai rice price has not quite found its floor yet Despite the dramatic decline in the price of Thai rice over the last month, we still think there is room for further falls. Sales from Thailand’s enormous official stockpiles into an already well... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No-change decision could mask split vote The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unsurprisingly left policy on hold today in the wake of its recent introduction of forward guidance on interest rates and the stronger economic news. But if markets... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Central bank in Malaysia to hike rates next year Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We expect the BNM to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year before hiking by 25bp as it looks to reduce... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan reiterates support for consumption tax hikes Governor Kuroda today underlined the Bank of Japan’s view – already reflected in its economic forecasts – that the planned consumption tax hikes will neither derail the recovery nor prevent inflation... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic-Sep The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What should we make of India’s latest reforms? The new governor of India’s central bank has arrived with a package of reforms that should settle the nerves of investors. However, the government has not been playing its part, making little progress... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily G20 summit overshadowed by Syria High hopes are being pinned on interest rate liberalisation to inject some vitality into China’s economy. But the full gains from liberalisation will only be realised if the government is willing to... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
