UK Economics Focus Can retailers rebuild their margins? The outlook for retailers’ costs is brighter than it has been for many years. That said, with only a weak recovery in household incomes in prospect and competitive pressures likely to intensify... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rate cut is probably a one-off We do not think that today’s unexpected interest rate cut by the Mexican central bank signals the onset of an aggressive easing cycle. Indeed, with forward-looking indicators suggesting thateconomic... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recovery gains momentum but capacity still ample The business surveys for August suggest that the global recovery, which accelerated in the second quarter, may have strengthened further in Q3. However, there is still plenty of spare capacity around... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The surprisingly robust 59,200 rebound in employment in August, following declines over the prior two months, wasn't quite as good as it looks because that gain owed a lot to a surge in part-time jobs... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August's Employment Report is a mixed bag that can be used either to support an immediate tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases or to delay that move. Our best guess is that the cumulative... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices should fall back as conventional supply recovers Crude oil prices are undoubtedly higher than they would otherwise be as a result of disruptions to supply – both actual (notably current outages in Libya) and potential (due to fears of contagion from... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q3 13) The spike in mortgage interest rates has taken a toll on housing market activity, but we don’t expect it to knock the housing recovery off course. Nevertheless, with the inventory of homes for sale... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Ind. Prod./ German & French Trade (Jul.) Data for July revealing falls in German and Spanish industrial production and a deterioration of Germany and France’s trade balances support our view that the eurozone’s economic recovery will be very... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What can we glean from regional unemployment data in the euro-zone? Unlike in Germany, regional labour market data from elsewhere in the euro-zone do not give much of a steer on the likely near-term paths of local office market vacancy rates. However, they do suggest... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q2) Icelandic GDP fell sharply in Q2. But behind the headline figure, the data confirmed that the economy is still on the road to recovery, albeit a long and tortuous one. 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Jul.), BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey (Q3) One criticism levelled at Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is that – for the S&P 500 at least – the denominator has been depressed by accounting changes. This has led... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug. 13) House prices rose further in August according to the Halifax, as demand for homes outstripped the number being put up for sale. But that imbalance is likely to subside gradually, which will reduce the... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Accounting for stock market overvaluation One criticism levelled at Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is that – for the S&P 500 at least – the denominator has been depressed by accounting changes. This has led... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery built on weak foundations Brazil’s beleaguered manufacturing sector came back from the dead to give the economy a muchneededboost in Q2. But hopes for a sustained recovery in industry this year are likely to bedisappointed. In... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia dwindling current account surplus: causes & consequences Despite continued high oil prices, Russia’s current account surplus has fallen from around 7% of GDP prior to the 2008/09 crisis to around 2% now and is on track to slip into a deficit by 2015. Given... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation stabilised over the summer and, while it is still likely to rise later in the year, the outlook is even more benign than we had anticipated a few months ago. We are lowering... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
