Asia Economics Update Korean rates set for prolonged hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept interest rates on hold today amid signs that the economy is starting to recover. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain subdued, we think the central bank will keep... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike still looks some way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. A rate hike is likely in 2014, but tightening is unlikely to be aggressive. 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Credit Monitor (Jul.) Restrictive mortgage rules and rising fixed mortgage rates suggest that the slowdown in household credit growth is likely to persist. Meanwhile, trends in business sector credit growth suggest that... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bumpy path ahead for Turkish retail yields Yesterday’s Q2 GDP data from Turkey suggest that retail occupier demand in Istanbul and Ankara is currently pretty strong. Against this backdrop, we think retail yields in both markets could fall... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Higher mortgage rates denting housing market activity The steady increase in mortgage interest rates is now having a more noticeable effect on housing market activity. Mortgage applications for refinancing have more than halved since rates began rising... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stay low even as the recovery picks up Inflation in most advanced economies is likely to remain at or below target for at least the next two years. GDP has accelerated in many countries, and has stabilised in the euro-zone, but it will be... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global implications of Fed tapering Whether at next week’s FOMC meeting or later this year, the Fed will almost certainly decide to scale back its asset purchases in the months ahead. However, Fed tapering is unlikely to be the major... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US exporters benefitting from euro-zone recovery Over the next two years, US exporters will continue to benefit from the recovery in overseas demand, particularly in the euro-zone. But the global economy is unlikely to be strong enough to generate... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: hryvnia’s stability masks underlying weakness At first sight, the stability of the hryvnia over the past few months suggests that Ukraine has been relatively insulated from the sharp sell-off in other emerging markets. But a closer look reveals... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) The drop in the ILO unemployment rate to 7.7% in the three months to July is consistent with signs of economic recovery and takes the rate closer to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But with scope for a... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q2 13) The number of financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs rose strongly again in Q2. Despite the looming spike in new Central London office development completions, this continued demand growth... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Dominance of first-time buyers unlikely to last Business cycles in advanced economies have been exceptionally closely aligned in recent years because of the global financial crisis, but they are likely to become less so in future. Although a global... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Enthusiasm for emerging market equities likely to grow 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising China demand won't stop oil prices from falling Despite increasing oil imports by China and other emerging economies, we expect the price of crude to fall as the temporary factors underpinning current high prices are resolved. What’s more, larger... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack 10-year gilt yields hit 3% as markets disregard guidance The much improved news on the UK economy has prompted investors to expect the MPC to raise official interest rates in the first quarter of 2015, 18 months earlier than the Committee has indicated they... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper The markets are obsessing about whether the Fed will begin to reduce its monthly asset purchases at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (18th September). All things... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
