Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering revisited We expect the Fed to announce a small reduction in its asset purchases at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. In this Update we revisit the implications for EMs and explain why, despite the market... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of improvement in EM trade data The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth accelerated in July. What’s more, on the basis of the latest leading indicators, a further improvement in EM exports looks... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed will probably announce a small cut in its asset purchases 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America’s daunting long-term debt problem The CBO's latest projections show that America’s long-term debt problem is slightly less daunting than it previously appeared to be. Nevertheless, at some point policymakers will still need to tackle... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What next for French and German capital values? September’s MPC minutes suggest that, despite the arguably disappointing impact of forward guidance, the Committee is happy with its policy stance. A resumption of quantitative easing (QE) before the... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal to remain under pressure Given the progress that the Portuguese Government has made towards cutting its borrowing, the Troika is likely to grant it at least part of its next bail-out tranche after negotiations this week. But... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How global is the business cycle? Business cycles in advanced economies have been exceptionally closely aligned in recent years because of the global financial crisis, but they are likely to become less so in future. Although a global... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) The robust rebound in manufacturing sales volumes suggest that GDP likely rebounded by 0.3% m/m in July. That suggests the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing, but the weak end to the... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in capital spending takes edge off deficit concerns An increase in capital expenditure across the region over the past few years means that the general widening in budget deficits may not be as worrying as the headline figures suggest. But there are... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) We doubt that the fall in CPI inflation in August will prevent the Fed from announcing a tapering of its asset purchases at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. Indeed, the risk of a... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers waiting for “taper” reaction Having been promised “surprise” measures to shore up the lira by Governor Basci, today’s Turkish rate setting meeting was a non-event. Policymakers appear to be waiting to see how the financial... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy starting to accelerate Our Saudi GDP Tracker suggests that the economy started Q3 on a strong note. The drag from the oil sector has eased, while growth in the non-oil sector has accelerated, supported by rapid credit... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will tourism kick-start a Greek economic recovery? Recent developments in Greece’s tourism sector suggest that the economy might record another quarterly rise in GDP in Q3. But even if this is the case, we suspect that this will not mark the start of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers step back from foreign exchange intervention One of the more surprising features of August’s EM currency sell-off is how little policymakers in the worst-affected countries intervened in foreign exchange markets to try to stop it. In the case of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) German investor sentiment strengthened in September, suggesting that the economic recovery should continue, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2. But the fall in euro-zone export values in July suggests... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) & Lloyds sale August’s fall in CPI inflation marks another step towards the 2% rate we think it could reach early next year. An end to the squeeze on households’ real earnings remains in sight. 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
