UK Housing Market Update Are mortgage rates set to rise? The sharp rise in swap rates in recent months has raised concerns that fixed mortgage rates will now follow. But while lenders will still be keen to maintain a healthy margin on any new lending, some... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth clouds start to lift The outlook for much of Emerging Europe has brightened in recent months and we expect growth in most countries to accelerate over the coming quarters. The strengthening of the euro-zone should support... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer recovery still looking good While the summer’s prolonged hot spell may have distorted sales patterns, the underlying trend in consumer spending still looks quite positive. 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch labour market downturn to deepen The Dutch labour market – once the envy of the euro-zone – will continue to shed jobs over the coming year. And as firms attempt to recover previous sharp falls in productivity, employment growth is... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q2 13) UK-based investing institutions were net sellers of commercial property in Q2. But this seems more likely to be a temporary blip rather than the start of a sustained sell-off and we think the nascent... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Aug.) Following a run of disappointing monthly public sector borrowing numbers, August’s public finances data suggested that the economic recovery could be finally starting to make its presence felt in the... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can sterling’s summer rally be sustained? It should only be a matter of time before the recent fall in the number of people losing their job is followed by a rise in the number of people finding a job. Less firing and more hiring is obviously... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What might China hold in store for Peru and Chile? With fears of a ‘hard landing’ in China receding, the economic outlook for Peru and Chile has brightened a little in recent months. As it happens, both countries appear fairly well placed to deal with... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Strong Q2 growth to temper talk of a rate cut Stronger-than-expected second quarter GDP growth in Colombia may temper expectations of interest rate cuts at next week’s monetary policy meeting. We continue to expect rates remain unchanged at 3.25%... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Summer surge The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that growth has continued to accelerate. But most of the strength is coming from a relatively narrow segment of the economy – heavy, state-led... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update More Egyptian rate cuts could be on the way The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to cut interest rates by 50bp today shows that policymakers are fully focussed on supporting the economy. With the backing of aid from the Gulf, additional... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Taylor rule imply for global monetary policy? Applying a simple Taylor rule to our economic forecasts suggests that the Federal Reserve is the only major central bank which should tighten monetary policy (or scale back its stimulus) before 2016... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of the FOMC's attitude to tapering We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of the FOMC’s largely unexpected decision to delay a tapering of its asset purchases. The new numbers are presented in the tables on pages 1 and 2... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold despite Fed surprise The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates on hold today and gave no indication that any change was likely in the foreseeable future. Growth remains below trend, but policymakers expect... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug. 13) The further rise in existing home sales in August may reflect a rush of sales from buyers keen to avoid any further rise in mortgage interest rates. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
