US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Jul. 13) The latest rise in the annual rate of house price inflation in July may be the most eye-catching part of today’s Case-Shiller house price report. But the real story is a welcome slowdown in the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian interest rates to stay on hold for prolonged period The weakness of the naira and concerns over loose fiscal policy meant the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, despite inflation remaining comfortably below... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A little further to go in Hungary’s easing cycle Following today’s cut in Hungarian interest rates, we are revising our year-end rate forecast to 3.00% from 3.50%. With inflation below target and the economic recovery still fragile, it looks like... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe has muted reaction to QE tapering delay The reaction of the financial markets in Central Europe to the US Fed’s decision to hold off tapering QE was decidedly muted. But these countries’ markets didn’t suffer the large sell-offs seen... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug. 13) The number of mortgages approved by banks increased again in August. But the momentum in mortgage lending growth appears to be fading, and there is scant evidence that a renewed secured credit boom is... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment confirmed that the economy is recovering, but we continue to expect GDP growth to be reasonably sluggish over the coming quarters. 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a rising profit share be less lucrative for the economy? With recent data showing no sign of a pick-up in workers’ pay, the economic recovery looks promising for UK firms’ profits. But it is questionable quite how much this will aid in rebalancing the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia Markets Monitor (Sep.) Asian currencies and equity markets have rebounded strongly over the past month. The biggest gains have been in those countries that were hardest hit by the sell-off in August. Bond yields have fallen... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro-zone peripheral bonds unlikely to benefit from German election 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing recovery continues in September Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that the economic recoveries in China and the euro-zone gained more momentum in September. The survey for the US dipped a bit, but this does not... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvement in China not enough to boost metal prices Industrial metals prices have remained weak today, despite the improvement in the flash PMI for China, which rose to a six month high. We continue to doubt that the rebound in China economy will last... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets rally as Fed delays tapering The surprise decision by the US Fed to delay the tapering of its asset purchases this month has provided a temporary reprieve for emerging market assets, including those in Africa. In light of this... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Detente between the US and Iran to undermine oil prices The markets and media have understandably been focused on developments in Syria for the last few months. However, signs of a possible thaw in the relationship between Washington and Tehran could have... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is "forward guidance" a step backwards? It’s going a bit far to claim that the Fed has lost all credibility simply because most in the markets were surprised by its decision not to begin winding down its asset purchase programme this month... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New home prices set to slow by more than existing home prices House price growth for new-build homes is set to slow more quickly than price growth for the existing housing stock over the next year, cutting into the price premium attached to a new home. 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the end of Ireland’s recession mean for Dublin property? Last week’s data, which confirmed that the economy took another step forward in the second quarter, was welcome news for Irish property markets. But there was little sign of any material strengthening... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
