UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The final estimate of Q2 GDP left the quarterly rise unrevised at a decent 0.7% and timelier economic data suggest that the recovery has gained more momentum since. However, the news that the current... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in August suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Dutch property markets finally responding to the weak economy? The resilience of Dutch commercial property markets to very weak economic fundamentals over the past few years may finally be fading. Previous supports such as the solid labour market and an increased... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fall-out from US debt-ceiling crisis may not be as severe as 2011 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Expectations for second-half GDP growth too optimistic At slightly more than 2.0%, the latest consensus forecast for third-quarter annualised GDP growth looks too strong to us. Partly because of large negative carry-over effects from the second quarter... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Household net worth continues to rebound The Federal Reserve's latest financial accounts show that households continued to deleverage in the second quarter, while the increase in public sector debt was the smallest since the financial crisis... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Regional divergence in stock market valuations The recovery in emerging market equities – up almost 6% on average since this time last month – has boosted price/earnings ratios across almost all the major regions. From a historical perspective... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth accelerates in Q2 but falters at start of Q3 The raft of official GDP data released over the past month confirmed that, having slowed sharply since the start of 2012, growth in Latin America picked up pace in the second quarter of this year. We... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade shows signs of life World trade growth picked up a bit in July and the forward-looking surveys suggest that this strength may be sustained in the coming months. However, there is little reason to expect trade growth to... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug. 13) New home sales did not fully reverse July’s unexpectedly sharp drop. But August’s data seem consistent with our view that the rise in mortgage interest rates seen over recent months will cool, but not... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More LTROs in the pipeline? The firmer tone of the economic data has ruled out any change in interest rates at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 2nd October, while the US Federal Reserve’s recent communication problems will... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of yet another US debt-ceiling crisis The prospect of a US Federal government shutdown is likely to undermine equity prices further in the coming days, despite the possibility that the resulting uncertainty could prevent the US central... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The slightly better than expected 0.1% m/m rise in durable good orders in August is largely explained by an inexplicably small decline in commercial aircraft bookings. Otherwise, the modest rebounds... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update When will the Financial Policy Committee act to restrain house prices? Despite extensive media coverage, outside of central London there is little evidence of a house price boom, and there has been no increase in the stock of mortgage debt. Therefore, there seems little... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep 13.) The further strengthening of the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in September provides reassurance that August’s drop in the official measure of retail sales was just a blip. For now, rising consumer... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Financial Policy Committee plays down bubble fears Today’s statement by the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) lacked drama. While the Committee is keeping a close eye on developments in the housing market, the approach for now is... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
