Global Markets Update Will emerging market equities continue to recover? The rebound in emerging market (EM) equities in September partly reflected the markets’ growing realisation that the Fed is likely to withdraw its monetary stimulus only very slowly. In addition... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 13) CoreLogic house prices for August paint a picture of a market that is losing some steam. Even so, there is little sign that higher mortgage interest rates are threatening to derail the housing... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodity prices fall despite support from the Fed The Fed’s surprise decision to maintain its current pace of asset purchases for a while longer had little effect on commodity prices. Indeed, the Fed’s caution partly reflects lingering uncertainty... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI falls but still indicates decent growth in Q3 The South African PMI fell back in September but, following strong readings in the previous two months, it is likely that the manufacturing sector recorded decent growth in Q3 as a whole. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s growth model showing signs of exhaustion Our GDP tracker suggests that the recent slowdown in Ecuador’s economy abated in Q2. But this has come alongside a sharp widening of the fiscal deficit. With external financing options limited, we are... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update September’s PMIs show Turkey rebounding, Russia lagging September’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the highly-open Central European economies continued to recover and that Turkey’s manufacturing sector rebounded. However, growth in Turkey appears to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Greece’s privatisation targets flawed? A contentious component of the Greek bail-out package has been its privatisation programme. This Update summarises some of the views expressed at a panel discussion in which Ben May was involved at... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug. 13) & Final Manu. PMI (Sep.13) August’s euro-zone unemployment figures provided further tentative signs that labour market conditions are improving. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Sep. 13) While September’s CIPS manufacturing survey softened slightly, the survey still points to a sector recovering at a rapid clip. However, with export growth weak relative to domestic demand and cost... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary base to rise further in US and Japan Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are likely to continue with quantitative easing for many months to come, even after the Fed has begun scaling back its monthly asset purchases. With... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 13) The official PMI for September raises further questions about the durability of China’s economic rebound. The headline index only edged up when most had expected a bigger improvement. In addition... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update September PMIs suggest manufacturing may have turned a corner The September PMIs for Emerging Asia show that manufacturing conditions have improved, with the headline number increasing in all six economies. Moreover, a broad-based rise in the new orders... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hike leaves credibility at risk Following a strong Q3 Tankan survey, the Japanese government today confirmed that it will go ahead with the first consumption tax hike next April. However, the decision to offset some of the fiscal... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Unemployment Rate (Aug.) The surge in the unemployment rate in August reflects a jump in the labour force participation rate and is at odds with other labour market indicators. Unemployment is likely to resume its downtrend... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank still likely to cut again The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today. However, we still expect further loosening over the coming months, and think that rates will remain very low in 2014. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s market rally fades China’s financial markets rallied in early September, but momentum has since faded. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
