BoE Watch A quiet meeting in prospect Following a disappointing initial reaction to forward guidance, there could have been a case for the MPC to do more to support the recovery. But with expectations for the date of a rate rise having... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Suez revenue is not offsetting broader economic losses The fact that the Egyptian authorities seem determined on keeping the Suez Canal open is clearly a positive for world trade. But it is not enough to offset the weakness in other sectors of the... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers’ Survey (Sep.) The first increase in the Economy Watchers’ Survey in six months brought the index to even more elevated levels. However, as households are suffering from rising inflation and falling wages, further... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China and India holding back regional rebound GDP growth in Emerging Asia over the next couple of years is likely to remain lacklustre by recent historical standards. The main reason for the subdued outlook is poor growth prospects in the region... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Recent weakness in the Nikkei is likely to be short-lived 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market confidence taking a knock Mortgage interest rates are declining following the Fed’s decision not to taper in September. But most of the housing data continue to reflect the earlier hike in rates. Housing market confidence has... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gilt yields to remain low despite strengthening UK economy Today we have revised up our UK GDP growth forecasts. But we still think that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates until 2017 at the earliest. As a result, we anticipate that Gilt yields... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India cuts effective policy rate The decision by India’s central bank to cut the interest rate on its Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), which it describes as a “calibrated withdrawal of exceptional measures”, equates to a further... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to fall back again We expect the Brent-WTI spread to gradually decrease from about $6 per barrel today to zero over the next year, as logistical constraints in Cushing and Louisiana ease. 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update More evidence that rental gains will spread beyond London offices We suspect that the drop in financial services sector output indicated by the latest CBI/PwC survey was simply a seasonal lull and that Central London office rents will continue to grow. Moreover... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking the long view The tendency of most forecasters (including ourselves) to focus on the growth prospects for Emerging Europe over a one or two year horizon means that the region’s medium-term growth potential is often... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy Today we are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review, in which we are revising up our growth forecasts. Stronger growth should not stop inflation falling back to target. It won’t prevent... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US fiscal uncertainty may well drag on throughout this week 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown could continue until debt ceiling deadline Congress appears to be no closer to resolving the now week-old government shutdown. Our best guess is that a comprehensive agreement will be reached sometime close to the 17th October debt ceiling... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Asia develop through services alone? As improvements in technology have made it easier to trade services, some commentators are suggesting that services-led growth provides an alternative development path for emerging economies. The... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
