Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug 13.) Despite a rise in production in August, the euro-zone industrial sector is unlikely to have provided much of a boost to the wider economy in Q3. 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Oct.) We think that this Wednesday’s labour market figures will show that the unemployment rate held steady in August, which could prompt markets to push back further their expected timing of the first rise... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Welcome slowdown in credit, but inflation rising The slew of September data released in the last few days reveal a welcome slowdown in broad credit growth and a sharp pick-up in inflation. The latter may look alarming, but on closer inspection it... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's outlook is upbeat, despite Q3 contraction Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy contracted in Q3. Nevertheless, the outlook remains upbeat. As such, the MAS saw no reason to change its policy stance at its meeting today. We do not... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Crunch time It’s good news that Congress appears to be moving towards a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but the solution currently being discussed is far from perfect. The biggest problem is that the Republican... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian export prospects looking up The IMF is right to argue that fiscal policy in South Africa needs to be tightened over the coming years in order to put public debt on a stable path. But its recommendation that South Africa adopt a... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Further yen weakness and Nikkei strength ahead Japanese equities are among the most vulnerable to the fall-out from a potential US government default. What’s more, profit margins are already close to record highs, and the pass-through of earlier... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP still on track for a strong Q3 Last week’s lacklustre official figures for trade, industrial production and construction output in August cast more doubt on whether the recovery is likely to be quite as robust and as broad-based as... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US shutdown underlines uncertain global backdrop The US federal government shutdown is unlikely to have major direct effects on the European economy and financial markets provided that it is resolved fairly quickly. Nonetheless, the episode has... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses losing confidence in economic outlook The latest Business Outlook Survey dealt another blow to the Bank of Canada's upbeat growth outlook. With businesses turning more cautious on the outlook for sales and capital investment, even our... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's modest 11,900 increase in employment, mostly among younger workers, still suggests that the economy is struggling to generate any material improvement in broader labour market conditions... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: debt ceiling alone won’t solve fiscal problems The IMF is right to argue that fiscal policy in South Africa needs to be tightened over the coming years in order to put public debt on a stable path. But its recommendation that South Africa adopt a... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Continued recovery in EM trade The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth maintained its upward trend in August. Forward-looking indicators point to further gains over the year ahead. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in no rush to cut rates despite slowing economy Peru’s central bank (BCRP) extended its long pause on interest rates last night and gave few hints that a change of policy is on the cards. Following a recent downgrade to the BCRP’s 2013 growth... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
