Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Non-oil economies set for recovery The MENA region’s non-oil economies remain fragile, but a recovery of sorts is likely over the next year. In Egypt, growth will be supported by the government’s Gulf-funded stimulus package, while... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in retail sales volumes puts the consumer recovery back on track. While pressure on real earnings points to further growth being unspectacular, rising wealth and the boost to consumer... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Why South Africa needs a weaker rand The South African rand was one of the hardest hit EM currencies during the summer sell-off and has now fallen by 15% against the US$ since the start of the year. However, as this Watch explains, a... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will happen after next year's bank stress tests? Euro-zone Finance Ministers made little progress on Banking Union at their summit this week. If next year’s stress tests find large holes in bank balance sheets, there is still no clear mechanism to... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Short-term debt ceiling fix still leaves plenty of uncertainty Financial markets have been buoyed by media reports indicating that both the Senate and the House are preparing to vote imminently on a bill to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Economic growth outlook likely to be downgraded We don't expect the Bank of Canada to make any major changes in next week's policy statement (Wednesday, 23rd October). While weak exports and business confidence are likely to have prompted some... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Core Europe now viewed as safer than the US The debt ceiling crisis has made it more expensive to insure against a default by the US government than the German or UK governments. (See Chart.) However, this development has not prevented long... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO unemployment won’t necessarily follow claimant count down The claimant count measure of unemployment has been falling more sharply than the wider ILO measure used by the MPC in its forward guidance on interest rates. While the claimant count is a timelier... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is homebuilder confidence set for a weaker period? Homebuilder confidence may be on the verge of a weaker period. The good news is that previous rapid run-ups and subsequent moderations in homebuilder confidence have dampened, but not derailed... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US debt crisis should not stifle global recovery If the political fight over the US debt ceiling goes to the wire, or beyond, there will be negative implications for the US economy. But the impact on the rest of the world should be fairly small. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? The Hong Kong dollar peg was introduced 30 years ago this week. Although the peg creates a number of problems, it remains the best option. We expect it to remain in place for many more years. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The small decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August suggests that, after rebounding strongly in July, the economy grew by only 0.1% m/m in August. Nevertheless, given the strong start to the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Loss of AAA ratings embarrassing, but probably little more The chaos in Washington has left the US at greater risk of losing its remaining AAA credit ratings even if an imminent default is avoided. However, while this would be a political embarrassment, the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
