Africa Economics Update South Africa: slower pace of fiscal consolidation The South African Finance Ministry chose to revise up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit in 2014/15 and 2015/16 rather than unveil new tightening measures in today’s medium-term budget statement... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada throws in towel The Bank of Canada's decision to downgrade its economic outlook and drop its vague tightening bias supports our view that if there is any change in monetary policy over the near-term, it would be to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Increased efficiency to sustain shale boom Much of the surge in US oil production has come from improvements in drilling technology and processes rather than an increase in the number of rigs. These improvements should reduce costs and allow... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Momentum fading The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the summer rebound in growth came to an end in September, as momentum in the state sector that had led the recovery began to fade. 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash Consumer Confidence (Oct. 13) The rise in euro-zone consumer confidence in October adds to signs that the euro-zone recovery is gradually improving. However, we think that a strong and sustained recovery in consumer spending is... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Polish property at a turning point? Recent data pointing to a sharp upturn in the Polish economy bode well for a gentle recovery in retail and industrial capital values in 2014. But the office market faces rising vacancy rates and a... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions likely to remain tight The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold today reflects the stabilisation of capital inflows and the strengthening of the lira over the past couple of months. But... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: leisure The prospects for the leisure sector look reasonably good. A cyclical rebound will help the sector in the near-term. And longer-term, leisure spending will disproportionately benefit as people both... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Policy uncertainty will persist for some time Congress has thankfully agreed to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling, but the short-term fix means that fiscal uncertainty will continue to act as a drag on the economic recovery... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Debt overhang a risk on horizon for parts of Latin America Lending growth has continued to cool in most parts of Latin America over the course of 2013. Although the credit boom of the past decade has yet to be reflected in a significant rise in default rates... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spain really on the path to recovery? Q3’s GDP estimate from the Bank of Spain suggests that the economy has finally emerged from its two year long recession. But we doubt that the economy will generate a strong enough recovery to bring... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Oct. 13) October’s MPC minutes yielded little for Bank of England watchers, with the Committee unanimously in favour of keeping policy unchanged. While unemployment is falling a little faster than the... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2013) Consumer spending growth appears to have picked up in large parts of the emerging world over the past couple of quarters but Emerging Asia has bucked the trend and spending growth there has continued... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep. 13) According to the BBA, mortgage approvals in September jumped by the largest amount in a single month since the end of 2008. Even so, net mortgage lending was once again negative, and banks appear to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property sales not keeping up with sentiment For all the headlines talking about a rebounding property sector in China, sales over the past few months have been no higher than they were a year ago. Developers may be benefiting from price rises... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt still reeling from unrest Egypt's economy continues to suffer from the fallout following the country's "second revolution" in July. Industrial production is contracting and tourist arrivals are down sharply. At the same time... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
