Global Economics Update Recovery in global manufacturing falters in October Disappointing preliminary business surveys for October suggest that the improvement in business conditions seen over the past few months may be beginning to tail off. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QEternity? The two-week government shutdown means that the Fed is almost certain to leave the pace of its monthly asset purchases unchanged at its two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on 30th October. The... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the euro-zone recovery lift equity earnings? The depressed level of euro-zone aggregate corporate earnings largely reflects the weakness of the region’s economy. While we continue to think that the recovery in GDP will be unspectacular, a... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The monthly trade deficit was basically unchanged at $38.8bn in August, suggesting that net external trade had a neutral impact on overall third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was near 2.0%... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surge in Argentine equities is not all good news Several recent developments, including the growing prospect of a political regime change, have combined to send Argentine asset prices soaring. But gains in Argentina's equity market are also... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflation set to stay subdued across most of the region Easing food inflation and a modest dip in core price pressures have caused headline inflation to fall across much of the MENA region over the past few months. We expect inflation to remain benign in... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct. & Q4) The CBI’s Industrial Trends Survey for October and the fourth quarter provided reassurance that the manufacturing recovery has not been knocked off course by sterling’s recent appreciation or the... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: muddling through, for now The early signs suggest that Turkey’s economy has emerged from this summer’s turbulence in financial markets relatively unscathed. Nonetheless, while GDP growth appears to have held up, it has been... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Gradual rate hikes in the Philippines next year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kept its main policy rate on hold today, against a backdrop of low inflation and continued strong economic growth. Looking ahead, although the central bank is... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Low interest rates supportive of Stockholm office values... for now Stockholm's office market appears to be in relatively good shape. Economic sentiment is rising, credit conditions for commercial property are strengthening, while this morning's decision by the... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) Despite falling in October, the euro-zone PMIs suggest that the region’s modest expansion continued at the start of Q4. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy rates unchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect either to hike... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation likely to remain in check Emerging market (EM) inflation has been fairly stable in recent months. It edged up in September but there is little reason to think that a sharp acceleration is in the offing. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct 13.) The manufacturing sector has gained some strength in October according to today's flash PMI but, with the government trying to rein in credit, slower growth lies ahead. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy ratesunchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect eitherto hike rates... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
