US Housing Market Focus Are higher mortgage rates a bigger threat than we thought? The steady rise in mortgage interest rates has weighed moderately on mortgage applications for home purchase and total home sales. Any fresh increase in mortgage rates would take a similar toll. While... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update End of income squeeze still in sight Given the latest round of utility price rises and a further slowdown in pay growth, it might seem that the squeeze on household incomes is never going to end. However, we remain optimistic that real... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 13) The decline in existing home sales in September was driven by the steady rise in mortgage interest rates seen over the preceding months. If the timelier new home sales figures are any guide, this set... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone enjoy a "creditless recovery"? The recent pick-up in the euro-zone economy stands in marked contrast to the accelerating contraction in bank credit. Given the importance of banks to the region, a “creditless recovery” will not be... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italian government bond spreads continue to fall? Given the recent run of positive economic news from the euro-zone, it is perhaps no surprise that the spread between Italian and German government bond yields has narrowed. But we remain concerned... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rise in the price of cocoa more bitter than sweet for producers Bad weather in West Africa may continue to drive the price of cocoa higher until the rainy season in the spring. But we think over the next few years, a combination of better farming techniques and... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze still dragging on spending, but not so badly Although real earnings are still being squeezed hard, one positive factor for households is that the pace of the Government's fiscal tightening is easing a bit ahead of 2015's general election. But... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) 2013 The widening of the trade deficit to a record high in September highlights that the sharp fall of the yen over the past year has had little impact on export competitiveness. While lower import prices... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More FDI could significantly boost productivity Japan’s stock of inward FDI is by some way the lowest in the OECD, reflecting a strict regulatory regime and administrative barriers at the local level. With foreign firms significantly more... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia's struggles set to continue next year ASEAN has been one of the bright spots in Emerging Asia over the past few years. However, slowing growth and signs of backtracking on economic reform have made 2013 a difficult year for ASEAN's three... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is business investment turning a corner? We estimate that stronger business investment growth of close to 7.0% annualised helped to boost third-quarter GDP growth, possibly slightly above 2.0% annualised. It is important to stress, however... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly New budget committee not necessarily DOA The new budget conference committee has been written off as dead on arrival by most people before it even starts work. Given the dysfunctional state of Congress and the failure of the deficit... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK relatively unaffected by US debt debacle Last week's deal on the US shutdown took the unlikely, but potentially catastrophic, possibility of a US sovereign default off the table. Admittedly, a series of potential US fiscal flashpoints still... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro strength threatens recovery prospects Euro-zone policymakers took another step along the path towards banking union last week, while the resolution of the US shutdown debacle appeared to remove an external threat to the region’s fragile... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary policy now a slave to fiscal uncertainty Even if Congress manages to keep the Federal government open and raise the debt ceiling next year, the continuing fiscal uncertainty is only going to make the Fed's job that much harder. That fiscal... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
