UK Commercial Property Update Restricted lending environment won't derail capital value rebound Banks and building societies continue to shrink their commercial property loan books and the signs are that this process still has further to run. Admittedly, there may now be scope for the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to stay low even as growth recovers Inflation in Central and South Eastern Europe slowed to a record low in September and is likely to remain subdued throughout 2014, even as growth recovers. This in turn should mean that monetary... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Worries about the US debt ceiling support gilts Fears that the impasse in the US debt ceiling negotiations could lead to default by the US Treasury have prompted investors to anticipate a later tightening of UK monetary policy, equity prices to... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market figures supported the MPC’s (and our own) view that even a fairly robust economic recovery will bring unemployment down only slowly. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate changes in Thailand through to mid-2014 The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged today at a low of just 2.50% against a backdrop of low inflation and weak growth. Although interest rates hikes are likely to start next year, the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Easy financial conditions and record-low bank lending rates continue to propel a strong expansion of the monetary aggregates and bank lending. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are foreign investors to a default on Treasuries? Expectations were growing on Tuesday that US lawmakers would soon reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling before the Treasury runs out of cash. But there is still an outside chance that a deal... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rebound in retail sales not as impressive as it first seems The sharp pick-up in Brazilian retail sales over the past couple of months has fuelled hopes that the country’s consumer-led growth model has kicked back into gear. We’re not so sure. While spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senate edging closer to deal to reopen government The Senate appears to be edging closer to a deal to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling. There is a risk that the Republican-controlled House will initially reject that agreement... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget keeps Ireland on track for bail-out exit Ireland’s 2014 Budget presented an apparently conducive backdrop for the country’s exit from its euro-zone support programme later this year. But Ireland’s post bail-out prosperity is not yet assured... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response House Prices & Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The uptick in house price inflation, to 2.7% in September from 2.3% in August, is consistent with the reported decline in the supply of housing inventory. But with home sales being pulled forward in... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Transactions data add to positive news flow Transactions-based yields have fallen pretty sharply in recent months and, rather than technicalities to do with shifts in the mix of properties being traded, this is another sign of a genuine... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why BRICs weakness is here to stay The IMF has downgraded its expectations for growth in the BRICS over the next couple of years, bringing its forecasts into line with our own. But while at face value the Fund expects growth to rebound... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices set for modest gains thanks to Government interventions With much fanfare, the Government has brought forward by three months the launch of the controversial Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme. We remain unconvinced that it will generate a large number... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Delving into the Treasury’s spending schedule Despite the more promising tone of the recent discussions on Capitol Hill, there remains a risk that the debt ceiling will not be raised before Thursday. But a detailed look at the Treasury’s spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
