Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still vulnerable, but new crisis now less likely Ukraine’s banks have substantially decreased their external vulnerabilities over the past few years, meaning that they are now better placed to withstand a modest hryvnia devaluation and/or a slowdown... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slovenia can still save itself from a bail-out Speculation has risen in recent weeks that Slovenia will be forced into some form of euro-zone bailout. But the country can still avoid asking for outside help in dealing with its banking crisis. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Thailand’s current account deficit a problem? Thailand’s current account has slipped from surplus into deficit in the last couple of years. We expect the deficit to stabilise over the coming year and think the chances of a balance of payments... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Gold should still be one of the few winners from US default 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Third-quarter GDP growth won't be sustained After being hit by floods and a major labour union strike at the end of the second quarter, Canada's economy rebounded sharply at the start of the third. For the third quarter as a whole, we now... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal tightening still not over, but the worst may have passed Clearly, the fiscal issues dominating the news at present are the US government shutdown and threat of default. We discuss the recent trends in the US and other advanced economies on pages 3- 4. But... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why isn't the gold price higher? There are several possible explanations for the failure of the gold price to take off despite the prospect that the US government may soon default on its debt. The most plausible is simply that the... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus End of ‘Kirchnerismo’ could unlock Argentina’s potential With mid-term elections approaching and Cristina Fernàndez’s hold on power seemingly slipping,some are betting on Argentina’s economy to roar back. This is premature – in fact, in the near term,a more... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Positive outlook but challenges lie ahead Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing regions over the next few years. Domestic demand will remain the key driver of growth. And while several external headwinds... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack As good as it gets? Japan’s export-oriented manufacturing sector is benefiting from the recovery in the global economy and the weakness in the yen, but the signals on domestic demand are mixed. Business spending does... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector bears the brunt of the unrest Tourist arrivals to Egypt have fallen back following the country’s “second revolution” and we estimate that tourist revenues in July and August were $600mn lower than in the same months of last year... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where and why do our forecasts differ from the IMF’s? In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF has cut its growth forecasts for most Emerging Asian economies, bringing them more or less into line with our own. However, there are three key... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC likely to have been united in standing pat With interest rate expectations dropping back a bit over the last month and the recovery continuing apace, today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave policy unchanged was... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Production (Aug.) The latest industrial figures heighten the risk that both the French and Italian economies contracted in Q3, confirming that the euro-zone’s recovery is strongly reliant on Germany. 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should we worry about Turkey’s shopping centre pipeline? Over the next 18 months, Turkey’s shopping centre market faces a 20% rise in supply. Yet unlike 2008 and 2011, when supply rose by a similar margin, occupier market fundamentals should prove more... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
