Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) Despite the sharp rise in production in August, the German industrial sector will provide the wider economy with a slightly smaller boost in Q3 than Q2. 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 13) Although there were some encouraging signs, the big picture from today’s Bank of England Credit Conditions survey was that lenders still seem nervous about expanding their residential or commercial... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Aug.), Credit Cond. Survey (Q3) August’s weak industrial production and trade figures signal that GDP growth in the third quarter might not be quite as strong as the business surveys have suggested. Meanwhile, the latest Credit... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s slowdown starting to hit public finances The slump in Russia’s economy over the past year is starting to weigh on its public finances. The deterioration has so far been fairly modest and the fiscal position looks manageable for now. But the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing to hold back economy As the export recovery is further delayed and housing activity softens, we expect Canada's economy to continue to struggle over the next two years. After growing by 1.6% this year, we forecast annual... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasuries shrug off debt ceiling crisis Although the shutdown of the federal government and the lack of agreement in Congress on extending the debt ceiling have pushed up the cost of insuring against a default by the US sovereign, this... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US default would be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic The markets are right to be concerned about the wider implications if the US Federal government is unable to service its debts. This would be uncharted territory and no-one can be sure exactly how... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response NFIB Small Business Survey (Sep.) September’s NFIB survey suggests that small businesses became more downbeat on the prospects for the economy ahead of the Federal government shutdown. The longer the shutdown continues, the more... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & Housing Starts (Sep.) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in August suggests that net trade will remain largely neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate to be 2.0% annualised. With export volumes... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Spanish property yields close the gap with core markets? The factors which have supported the sharp narrowing of the spread between Spanish and German government bond yields over the past year or so should also be supportive of Spanish property values... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weak growth but no crisis Financial markets have awakened to the vulnerabilities in the emerging world. These are real and will weigh on growth in the years ahead. But we believe that the doomsayers will be proved wrong – an... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Rising confidence will accelerate property’s recovery Occupier confidence has finally taken a turn for the better. We think that this will accelerate the recovery in commercial property rents and prices. The consensus view is that IPD all-property... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 13) The RICS reported another strong rise in new buyer enquires in September, even before today’s launch of the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee. But with interest rates on the first guaranteed mortgage... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) While September saw the BRC’s measure of retail sales growth slow, that month’s warm weather explains part of the weakness. And other indicators have been more positive. Nonetheless, the consumer... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
