Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to remain on hold for a prolonged period With Poland’s economy now picking up, attention is turning to when monetary policy might start to be tightened. The financial markets are pricing in a first rate hike in Q1 of next year. However, we... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB in no hurry to provide further support President Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone about the euro-zone’s nascent recovery. But while he made it clear that the ECB stands ready to prevent excessive rises in market interest rates... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Q2 GDP data shed light on Egypt’s economic troubles GDP data released over the past few days provide evidence that the Egyptian economy was struggling even before the country’s “second revolution”. Elsewhere, there was better news from Morocco, while... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Mortgage applications for home purchase rose in September, the first gain in three months. This may be an early sign that borrowers are starting to adjust to the higher interest rate environment. 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues, but unevenly Our EM-wide PMI suggests that the recovery in EM manufacturing continued at the end of Q3. However, the improvement is uneven. The rebound was most prominent in Emerging Europe, helped by the... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep. 13) The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that commercial property developers are increasingly confident about the prospects for occupier demand and, hence, rental values. The conventional wisdom is... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Too low for too long? Following the Bank of England’s announcement of forward guidance, there have been a number of warnings about the dangers of a further prolonged period of very low interest rates. We think these... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors’ calm over US government shutdown may be short-lived 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update On shutdown costs and the timing of a possible default The furloughing of 800,000 Federal employees, as part of the government shutdown that began today, will reduce spending by roughly $155 million per day. Over a whole year, the cost would be equivalent... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US government shutdown shouldn't hurt Canada The US government shutdown should not have a material negative impact on Canada's economy. But if this political deadlock is any indication of how US policymakers will handle the much more important... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up slightly in September Final business surveys for September, published by Markit this week, suggest that global manufacturinggrowth may have accelerated a bit relative to August. But steady global growth masks significant... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The further increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a 29-month high of 56.2 in September, from 55.7, reflects the recent improvement in both domestic and overseas economic conditions. While this... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Shutdown only the opening act in budget negotiations The economic impact of the Federal shutdown that began today all depends on how long it drags on and, in particular, whether the acrimonious stand-off in Congress spills over into the negotiations to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMIs add to evidence that Mexican industry will overtake Brazil September’s manufacturing PMIs provide further evidence that the decent start to the year for Brazilian industry was a false dawn. By contrast, Mexican industry appears to be finding its feet after a... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
