Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five years on – what next for the emerging world? In the five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, emerging economies have accounted for three-quarters of global growth. This has fed expectations that the emerging world can continue to... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling's rally against the dollar is unlikely to be sustained 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. Butwe think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who will pick up the slack when the Fed stops buying? One of the market’s concerns ahead of the Fed taper is whether there will still be sufficient demand for Treasuries from other investors to prevent a further surge in yields when the US central bank... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The latest pick-up in house price inflation is consistent with the reported rebound in existing home sales. But as mortgage rates continue to rise, we expect falling home sales will eventually result... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Growth in buy-to-let lending lagging overall market There was a further slight uptick in mortgage approvals in September, but it would be premature to view this as the start of a sustained recovery in the housing market. The improvement was modest, and... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The prospects for Central London office rents have improved The Central London office market clearly still has a significant degree of momentum and we have revised up our rental growth forecasts by two or three percentage points each year for 2013 to 2015. 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won’t fuel the euro-zone recovery Hopes that looser or less tight fiscal policy will fuel the recovery in the euro-zone economy are unlikely to be met. For the foreseeable future, fiscal policy will remain a sizeable drag on growth. 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep monetary policy tight Bank Indonesia (BI) today unexpectedly hiked interest rates in response to continued weakness in the rupiah. Looking ahead, even if the currency starts to recover soon, monetary policy will still need... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s large fall in euro-zone industrial production put a serious dent in hopes that the tentative recovery underway in the region’s economy will have gathered further momentum in the current quarter... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt monetise its budget deficit? There are mounting concerns about the prospect of deficit monetisation in Egypt. Indeed, thereappears to be some evidence that the central bank is already financing the budget shortfall, albeiton a... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing bubble revisited A warning from US economist Robert Shiller about the recent sharp rise in Brazilian house prices has revived fears of a property bubble in Latin America’s largest economy. Our position remains that... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines, but hikes likely next year With no sign that strong economic growth is feeding through into higher consumer price inflation, the central bank in the Philippines (BSP), as expected, opted to keep interest rates unchanged today... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the income squeeze nearly over? UK consumers have endured the worst squeeze on their real incomes since the 1920s, but finally the end is in sight. We expect falling inflation, a rebound in productivity and some support from tax... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) Even though machinery orders failed to reverse the previous month's dip in July, they still point to a further rebound in business investment in the third quarter. As capacity utilisation rises... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
