US Housing Market Outlook Recovery slowing to a more sustainable pace The spike in mortgage interest rates has taken a toll on housing market activity, but we don’t expect it to knock the housing recovery off course. Nevertheless, with the inventory of homes for sale... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Subsidy reform key to sustaining fiscal discipline The widening of fiscal deficits in several economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years has increased the importance of subsidy reform. The good news is that policymakers are starting to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The quarterly rise in Greek GDP in Q2 raises hopes that the economy has reached a turning point. But we doubt that Greece is now on the path to recovery and still think that further financial... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update But is it the right type of recovery for the Chancellor? 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the housing market give consumers a boost? Past housing market upswings have all coincided with above-average rates of consumer spending growth. But it is easy to overstate the strength of the direct linkages between the two. Therefore, unless... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What effect will Germany's election have on euro-zone bonds? Germany will probably continue to provide temporary support for troubled euro-zone countries but retain an emphasis on austerity after its election later this month. This should minimise the demand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Encouraging signs on inflation and foreign demand Today’s inflation data added no additional pressure for monetary tightening while the weekend’s export data provided further evidence of a revival in foreign demand. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence & Economy Watchers’ Survey (Aug.) The ongoing falls in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers’ Survey (EWS) indicate that confidence in "Abenomics" has faded. While other surveys remain at strong levels, the EWS has a better... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) The upward revision to Q2 GDP growth strengthens the case for the government to press ahead with the consumption tax hike. However, the ongoing large reliance on consumer and government spending... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery too reliant on the housing market? Concerns are building that the economic recovery is too reliant on an unsustainable boom in the housing market. But we think that this is giving the housing market too much credit for the turnaround... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower before year-end We expect the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar to be followed by another downward leg before year-end. While improving global economic conditions and buoyant commodity prices will help to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Spain staging an export-led recovery? Last week’s data from Spain were pretty encouraging – in particular, the PMI export orders index for August suggested that Spain’s robust export recovery continued in Q3. But other data indicate that... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is regular pay not picking up? Despite improving economic conditions, which include the unemployment rate dropping to fresh cyclical lows, nominal wages excluding bonuses and overtime payments have continued to fall. One reason is... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fannie, Freddie and financial repression The proposed winding down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-owned mortgage finance companies, is normally framed in terms of protecting taxpayers from having to pick up the tab in the... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling current account surpluses are not to be feared Current account deficits in India and Indonesia have rightly caused some concern, but elsewhere in Asia the trend towards smaller current account surpluses should be welcomed. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
