Canada Economics Update Housing's support to second-half GDP unlikely to last Housing investment might continue to support GDP growth over the second half of this year, but there are still tentative signs that a day of reckoning lies around the corner, with housing likely to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won't ignore wider measures of labour market slack By choosing the unemployment rate as its threshold for forward guidance, the MPC has been criticised for using a fairly narrow measure of slack in the labour market. However, we doubt that this will... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is industrial property in Prague poised to outperform? Our forecasts envisage that by end-2017, office and retail capital values in Prague are unlikely to be materially higher than current levels. By contrast we think that industrial values might rise by... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What next for the Egyptian pound? Following the recent strengthening of the Egyptian pound, we have revised our year-end forecast for the currency. But in this Watch, we explain why we still think that, over a longer horizon, the... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q2) A robust year-on-year rise in gross mortgage lending during the second quarter of 2013 provides further evidence that the mortgage market is returning to life. But first-time buyers without a large... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Olympics likely to be an economic non-event Tokyo’s hosting of the 2020 Olympic Games is unlikely to provide any material contribution to economic growth in Japan. Overall spending on the Games will be small and focused on sporting facilities... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update External financing risks persist in South Africa South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q2, and the shortfall continues to be funded in largepart by short-term capital inflows. As a result, the economy remains among the most vulnerable to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth looking increasingly unsustainable Following today’s stronger-than-expected Turkish Q2 GDP data, we are revising up our growth forecast for this year as a whole. However, growth was driven by credit-fuelled consumer spending and a... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2) & French Industrial Production (Jul.) Although Q2’s final Italian GDP figures painted a reasonably encouraging picture, timelier hard data, such as the French industrial production numbers for July, suggest that the euro-zone economy... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity, spending & credit (Aug.) Today’s data releases give further evidence that China’s economy is picking up speed. But the rebound is skewed towards investment, with state-led spending on infrastructure particularly strong. The... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2) & French Industrial Production (Jul.) Although Q2’s final Italian GDP figures painted a reasonably encouraging picture, timelier hard data, such as the French industrial production numbers for July, suggest that the euro-zone economy... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) Another strong rise in the demand for homes, coupled with a lagging response on properties being put up for sale, has led to a rise in house prices. But the conditions for a sustainable rise in first... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What’s really been behind the bounce in Japanese equities? 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for fiscal reform in Mexico The package of tax reforms announced over the weekend by the Mexican government is the most significant in recent history, but will still leave the authorities highly reliant on oil as a source of... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Consumption tax – not Olympics – key to Nikkei outlook The headlines in Japan today have been dominated by the successful Olympics bid, but there will be many decisions with much greater economic and market significance to be taken before 2020 – not least... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a left-wing coalition mean for Germany? The possible coalition of Germany’s SPD, Green and Left parties after next week’s election would probably mean slightly higher taxes and spending than under the more likely alternatives of a grand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
