UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) While August saw the BRC’s measure of retail sales growth slow a touch, another month of expansion should boost retailers’ confidence that a solid, if unspectacular, rise in consumer spending is... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to cut rates before the end of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening before the end of the year, and think that rates will remain very low in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) Wage growth slowed in July and is likely to ease further in coming months as bonus season ends. Unless regular earnings pick up markedly, households’ purchasing power will therefore become further... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro-zone equities are unlikely to hold onto their gains 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2 13) Swiss Q2 GDP data revealed that activity continued to pick up pretty strongly. While modest export growth is likely to mean that the recovery is not particularly rapid, a healthy domestic economy... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Happy Birthday OMTs – it could be downhill from here The ECB’s OMT programme has had a successful first year. But there are still reasons to doubt that it has solved the euro-zone crisis and the programme’s effects could fade in the coming months. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing coming, but not just yet The Bank of Japan is unlikely to make any major policy changes at its two-day September meeting, which concludes on Thursday. Recent economic and market developments have mostly been positive, and... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More upside for gold than oil? Concerns about the impact of Fed tapering on commodity markets have eased somewhat, partly because of the growing recognition that US monetary policy is likely to remain very loose, and partly because... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian and Mexican industry trading places The latest manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil suggests that, having been responsible for stronger-than expected GDP growth in Q2, industrial production is likely to weaken again in the second half of... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC GDP growth propped up by Brazil rebound in Q2 At an aggregate level, the second quarter GDP data suggest that the BRIC economies held up relatively well in Q2. However, this was largely due to a surprisingly strong rebound in Brazil. In the other... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug 13.) The smaller peripheral euro-zone economies continue to make solid inroads into their budget deficits. But the Italian and Spanish deficits have fallen only modestly. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How has the Bank of Japan kept yields low? The surge in the yields of US Treasuries since May has been mirrored, to varying degrees, in most other advanced economies. In contrast, the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have decoupled... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there any point in the G20? Investors have long ago learnt to expect little of substance to emerge from the formal meetings of G20 leaders and finance ministers. The group is too large and disparate to function as an effective... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing recovery gathers steam The South African manufacturing PMI rose to a six-year high in August, indicating a further uptick in overall GDP growth in Q3. But relatively high wage increases agreed in the past month or so are... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update August PMIs show Asian manufacturing sectors still struggling The August PMIs for Emerging Asia show that, outside of China, the region’s manufacturers are continuing to struggle, with the headline numbers now below 50 across the region. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
