Canada Economics Update Higher commodity prices boosts business confidence Another rise in the CFIB's small business confidence in August suggests that firms continue to expect GDP growth to pick up in the third quarter, from our estimated 1.5% annualised in the second.... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China bucks Asian market turmoil China’s financial markets have remained stable in August despite the turmoilelsewhere thanks to capital controls and the release of some positive economic data.However, Hong Kong equities have... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rebound in payroll growth would point to September QE3 taper A rebound in employment growth and an unchanged unemployment rate should reinforce expectations that the Fed will begin tapering its monthly asset purchases in September. Our econometric model of non... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jul. 13) House prices as measured by the Land Registry are now beginning to catch up with the main lender indices, with the strongest month-on-month rise for 1½ years. But a new house price boom still looks to... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slower growth in Indonesia likely after recent rate hikes The extent of the latest rout in emerging market currencies has prompted comparisons with previous crises, such as that in the autumn of 2008. But we suspect some recovery may be around the corner... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Shanghai copper premiums are likely to plummet Copper premiums in Shanghai hit a record high earlier this month but we expect them to fall from around $175 per tonne at present to under $100 over the next six months or so. 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will emerging market currencies suffer a re-run of 2008? The extent of the latest rout in emerging market currencies has prompted comparisons with previous crises, such as that in the autumn of 2008. But we suspect some recovery may be around the corner... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s stimulus plan comes with risks attached Egypt’s newly-announced stimulus package stands a chance of boosting the beleaguered economy in the near-term. But with the package being funded by Gulf aid, over the longer-term, it could actually... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to rise by less than market expects Brazil’s decision to hike interest rates by a further 50bp last night will have been bolstered by the extent of the recent slide in the real. But the rise in market rate expectations over the past... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Recent trends in the new-build premium The new-build premium has more or less held its ground over the past year, with new homes around 15% more expensive than equivalent second-hand properties. But with new-build prices now receiving an... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in the Philippines to remain strong GDP growth in the Philippines remained strong in Q2, helped by buoyant domestic demand. The economy is well-placed to withstand recent turmoil in financial markets. Indeed, we still expect the... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The sharp drop in retail sales in July casts doubt on the ability of “Abenomics“ to boost private consumption. While hot weather may have prevented consumers from spending, there are a number of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How vulnerable is Asia to capital outflows? Financial markets in Asia have continued to suffer this week but we continue to believe that the region will weather the storm. Vulnerabilities are highest in India. Elsewhere though, even a large... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still pinning hopes on an unlikely export-led recovery The Bank of Canada is unlikely to make any major changes in its upcoming policy announcement next Wednesday (4th September), but the recent surge in Canadian long-term interest rates could prompt the... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
