Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery could be jobless for some time The euro-zone’s nascent recovery is unlikely to prompt a significant improvement in labour market conditions for quite some time. This suggests that wage growth and consumer spending will remain... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for Emerging European equities are Poles apart A number of equity markets in Emerging Europe – Poland’s in particular – have proved relatively resilient during the recent emerging market sell-off. We think they may continue to outperform equities... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Sell-off in emerging markets should have little global impact The recent sell-off in emerging market assets should have limited impact on the global economy. Growth in the emerging world itself may not decelerate much further than it has done already; and... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q2) Average US house prices rose at double-digit levels once again in the second quarter. But adjusting for normal seasonal patterns, all three of the main Case-Shiller indices suggest that the rate of... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jul.) The threat of a fresh sovereign debt default continues to cast a long shadow over Argentina, following last Friday’s US Appeals Court ruling. But in the real economy things are looking somewhat... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle slowing down The fact that the Hungarian central bank cut interest rates by just 20bp today highlights that, even though the forint came through the recent EM sell-off relatively well, Hungary is still highly... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s behind the rally in gold? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold reflects a range of positives. Some of these should be sustained, notably the growing recognition that US monetary conditions will remain loose even... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in Q2 GDP masks underlying weakness After growing at its slowest quarterly pace in almost four years in Q1, it was always likely that South African GDP would accelerate in Q2. Nevertheless, the pick-up in growth shouldn’t detract from... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug.) August’s sharper-than-expected rise in German Ifo business sentiment added to the recent encouraging signs that the economy is recovering. 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Aug.) The pick-up in small business confidence in August shows that firms remain confident about the economic recovery. Spare capacity is also expected to shrink further and profitabilityis strong, which... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Peruvian growth unlikely to be sustained Peru’s economy picked up pace in Q2, but the scope for a further acceleration of GDP growth from here looks extremely limited. In contrast to the consensus, we believe that the trend will be towards a... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's second-quarter GDP slowdown Canada's economy contracted sharply at the end of the second quarter, but only partly because of one-off factors related to severe floods and a brief labour strike. For the second quarter as a whole... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The much bigger than expected 7.3% m/m decline in July's durable goods orders dampens hopes of a pick-up in the growth rate of business investment in the third quarter. 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we still worry about EM currency crises? Improved fundamentals mean that currency crises pose a much smaller risk to Emerging Markets now than in the past. But it would be unwise to assume that the coast is therefore clear for the emerging... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Raising the official retirement age may have little impact Japan's adverse demographics and huge public debt are strengthening the pressure for labour market reforms that could both lift economic growth and save the government money. However, raising the... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the euro-zone’s currency benefit from better economic data? By 2014, the Netherlands will have seen an unprecedented fall in household spending. The resulting weakness in the Dutch economy will undermine attempts to address euro-zone imbalances, while... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
