Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's 1.2% m/m decline in retail sales volumes, which only partially reversed the 1.9% m/m gain in the month before, confirms that, over the second quarter as a whole, household consumption growth... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will unemployment fall sooner than the MPC thinks? There seems to be a general view that the MPC is underestimating how quickly unemployment will fall to the 7% threshold set under forward guidance, helping to explain why markets expect interest rates... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The sinking Dutchman: slump in consumption to deepen By 2014, the Netherlands will have seen an unprecedented fall in household spending. The resulting weakness in the Dutch economy will undermine attempts to address euro-zone imbalances, while... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How does India today compare with previous crises? The rupee continued to slide today, breaking through 65 to the US dollar for the first time. Newspaper headlines continue to talk of a crisis. In this Update we compare the current situation with... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone data provide some cheer (for now) In the event, the FOMC minutes simply reinforced expectations that the US central bank will start to taper its asset purchases as soon as next month. Instead, industrial metals prices have been buoyed... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How badly will political unrest hit Egyptian tourism? The outbreak of violence in Egypt has made the economic outlook highly uncertain. But it’s pretty clear that the tourism sector will be hard hit, as it has been during previous bouts of unrest. We... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s flash euro-zone PMIs provided further evidence that the currency union’s economy continued to expand in the third quarter, albeit at a pretty modest pace. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug 13.) The strong rebound in August’s flash PMI should reassure even the most bearish that China has avoided an imminent hard-landing. We continue to believe however that the rebound will prove short-lived... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble stays out of the firing line... for now The ruble has fared surprisingly well during the latest EM sell-off, in large part due to the fact that oil prices have edged up over recent weeks. Nonetheless, the ruble is still weaker than the... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The tentative signs of acceleration in the June money supply figures turned out to be a false dawn. In July, most money supply measures expanded at the slowest pace in several months on a m/m basis... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily FOMC minutes may have shed more light on timing of QE3 taper 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed still on course to begin QE taper in September While it's far from a certainty, the minutes from the FOMC meeting in late July appear to support our view that the Fed will begin to slow its monthly asset purchases at the next meeting in mid... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Jobs pick-up in Scotland and North West a better sign for rents The pace of employment growth has slowed in several regions over the past few months but picked up in Scotland and the North West. Other factors such as existing vacancy rates are obviously relevant... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
