Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth settling down to slower trend Today’s GDP data confirm that Chile’s economy is cooling and is likely to settle at a slower trend pace in the coming years. Given the current resilience of domestic demand, we do not foresee a... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a modest improvement, but growth remains weak 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it still make sense to rotate out of bonds into equities? The year-to-date returns from US equities and (7-10 year) US Treasuries are plus 18% and minus 6%, respectively. Judging by recent shifts in asset allocation, many expect the superior performance of... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will mortgage guarantees be as successful as equity loans? After the success of the Help to Buy equity loan scheme, there are concerns that the potentially much larger mortgage guarantee aspect of the scheme could trigger a new house price boom when it is... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Exports alone can’t save Slovenia Slovenia’s large export sector is faring rather well, supporting the country’s efforts to avoid a bail-out from the euro-zone. But exporters alone will not save Slovenia. Rather, the Government needs... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A strong rebound in Thailand’s growth is unlikely Thailand’s Q2 GDP data showed continued weakness in the economy, and we do not expect much of a rebound in the second half of the year. Given the central bank’s limited scope to aggressively loosen... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jul.) The first rise in export volumes since early 2012 is unlikely to be sustained amid sluggish external demand. Meanwhile, the weak yen continues to have little impact on the trade deficit, which has... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Threat from twin deficits begins to recede The incoming news over the past couple of weeks suggests that the so-called twin deficits – the current account and Federal budget – are both improving, in the case of the Federal budget quite... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some exporters could benefit from European recovery Canada's trade with the euro-zone is small, so any sustained European recovery would provide only modest support to Canadian export growth. That said, there are a few industries that might benefit... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s industrial outperformance to continue Asia’s manufacturers have had a hard time since the global financial crisis, and are currentlystruggling through yet another weak patch. However, they have actually done much betterthan their peers in... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More investment needed to maintain capital stock Business investment has been a clear laggard in Japan’s recovery. Structural factors, including a high level of investment compared to other countries and a large rise in the capital/GDP ratio since... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession over, but crisis unresolved While the second quarter’s 0.3% expansion in euro-zone GDP may partly have reflected temporary factors, there seems little reason to doubt that the region’s record-long recession is finally at an end... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Markets get over-excited by labour market news Market rate expectations rose further last week following some positive unemployment figures and the news that the Monetary Policy Committee was not unanimous in supporting forward guidance in the... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Despite a strong rebound in petroleum refining, June's surprising 1.3% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes, which wasn't related to the floods in Alberta, suggests that second-quarter GDP... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 80.0 in August, from 85.1, reversed only part of the sharp gains of the previous three months. Since most... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
