Latin America Economics Update Energy reform to support outperformance of Mexican economy The Mexican government’s plan to open up the oil industry to foreign investment could boost annual GDP growth by 0.3%-pts over the next decade and also give a substantial boost to tax receipts. This... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & German ZEW Survey (Aug.) June’s euro-zone industrial production data and August’s German ZEW survey provide further signs that the euro-zone has emerged from recession. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Business investment turning up Capital spending has lagged well behind the recovery in the rest of Japan’s economy, but it should now start to make a decent contribution to growth from the third quarter onwards. In turn, this may... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) Although July’s fall in inflation was largely a reflection of unusual price movements in the same month last year, we think a sustained fall in price pressures is now in train. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) The latest RICS housing survey reported a jump in demand for homes and house prices, as record low mortgage rates tempt more people into buying a home. But with housing overvalued, a rise in prices... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy struggling even before the “second revolution” The latest Egyptian activity data suggest that the economy was suffering even before the armed forces ousted President Morsi at the start of last month. Needless to say, growth has slowed even further... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Homebuilders are having a Wile E. Coyote moment While housing starts have displayed some surprising resilience over the past several months, which would seem to support the consensus view that the housing market is enjoying a soft landing, more... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and soybean prices still have further to fall We think that the prices of US grains and soybeans are still higher than can be sustained by fundamentals, despite the sharp falls last month. 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen’s recovery likely to be temporary There are many factors behind the recent partial recovery in the yen and associated weakness in the Nikkei, but perhaps the most important is fading expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What do the Q2 GDP data mean for the consumption tax? Last week India appointed Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, as the new governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI). The new governor takes over at a tricky time, with India’s economy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika’s Greek economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Greek GDP figures, which suggest that the economy may have expanded in Q2, confirm that Greece has benefitted from the recent period of relative calm and stability. But a strong and sustained... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Returning confidence in the Italian property market premature Signs of a renaissance in Italy’s commercial property investment market appear to be heavily reliant on investors targeting distressed property. To the extent that most investors are unwilling to buy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean monetary policy? By all accounts this week’s interest rate decision in Chile is set to be a close call. We’re forecasting a 25bp cut to 4.75% but acknowledge that a slightly firmer tone to the recent economic data... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What is driving nominal pay growth down? A notable development over the past year has been the further step down in the rate of nominal pay growth. This seems most likely to have reflected the previous slowdown in productivity growth... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
