UK Economics Weekly Rates to stay on hold for three years (probably) The MPC took a bold step with its forward guidance on interest rates last week, although the various “knockouts” left some wondering whether it created more confusion than it cleared up. Indeed, the... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness is not a panacea The conventional wisdom is that a weak yen should help boost the competitiveness of Japanese exports. However, most exports are invoiced in foreign currency, and exporters have been reluctant to lower... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India’s new central bank governor to keep a tight rein Last week India appointed Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, as the new governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI). The new governor takes over at a tricky time, with India’s economy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the MPC have been bolder with its threshold? While the MPC has emphasised that interest rates will not automatically rise when unemployment reaches 7%, the Committee could arguably have been bolder in setting a lower threshold. 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) July's surprising 39,400 decline in employment looks bad but, since it mainly reflects less hiring of younger workers this summer, the Bank of Canada should view it as a temporary shock that will be... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic demand is building momentum The latest signs that economic growth is gathering momentum are especially encouraging as they imply that a broad-based improvement in domestic demand may be underway. A continuation of the housing... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia enters recession Second quarter GDP data from Russia were not only much weaker than expected – according to our estimates they are also consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial upturn has weak foundations The national industrial production figures for June provided further evidence that euro-zone GDP might have expanded in Q2. Nonetheless, a closer look at the data suggests that the figures are perhaps... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese recovery built on weak foundations Today’s data releases provide further evidence that China’s economy is improving. However, the rebound has been driven by investment spending and fuelled by rapid credit growth earlier this year. A... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2) The fall in mortgage delinquencies, fewer foreclosure starts and the lower foreclosure inventory rate in Q2 are all encouraging signs that the fundamentals of the housing market are mending. Although... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Low corporate bond yield spreads a sign of sturdy tenant base Corporate bond yield spreads are currently pretty low in an historical context and suggest that there are few fears about the viability of UK firms. At the margin, this is another reason to think that... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia bides its time The Central Bank of Russia kept interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement provides some hints that policy may start to be eased over the coming months. Even so, dramatic cuts in... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jun.) June’s trade figures suggest that the external sector is now joining in the economic recovery. But while the trade deficit narrowed, a recovery that continues to be primarily led by the consumer will... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market shows steady recovery Record low mortgage rates and the Help to Buy equity loan scheme have given a boost to housing demand, which has helped house prices to make some gains. But with more homes now coming onto the market... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to grind lower over the next year Despite the introduction of a new support scheme for coffee farmers in Brazil, we expect the price of arabica coffee to fall from around 120 US cents per lb today to 100 by the end of 2014. This is... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
