US Economics Update Productivity stagnation bodes ill for potential GDP growth After incorporating the revisions to the historical GDP figures, America's recent productivity performance looks even worse. The stagnation in productivity isn't going to have any major impact on Fed... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul 13.) The increase in housing starts in July was driven by the multi-family sector, with single-family starts posting a small decline. The recovery in multi-family starts has been the driving force behind... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Stable outlook for inflation leaves central banks with a free hand The continued high level of spare capacity and absence of big commodity price movements suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain low and stable in the coming months. This... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia recession may be short-lived but growth will remain weak The slump in Q2 growth in Russia reported last week appears consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of 2013. The good news is that barring an unforeseen external... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong set for gradual recovery Hong Kong GDP figures for the second quarter show the economy remains subdued. Over the next couple of years, with the global economy set to stage a gradual recovery, Hong Kong should see a modest... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Low valuations fuel euro-zone outperformance Euro-zone equities have staged something of a revival so far in the second half of 2013, returning over 10% and outperforming US equities. Relatively low valuations have probably played an important... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Feel-good factor buoys spending The recovery in consumer spending seems to be becoming more entrenched. While better weather has helped support sales, the underlying picture has also strengthened. Both retail sales and non-retail... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack NPLs continue to pick up There has been an increase in the value of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system since Q3 2011, as the economy has slowed. At face value, this problem does not yet appear too serious... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Current account deficit unlikely to re-emerge as threat Despite the recession in Europe and the slowdown in economic growth in China, the US current account deficit has continued to narrow. Our calculations suggest that in the second quarter it hit a 15... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw office market rental downturn has a little further to run The latest data suggest that occupier demand in the Warsaw office market is beginning to strengthen again. But with employment in the Polish capital still low and the near-term office development... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the recovery in the euro-zone business surveys the real deal? The rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2, coupled with the improvements in the key business surveys, confirms that a turning point in the business cycle has been reached. But these developments do not... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul.) The fading of the downward pressure on core inflation and the fall in initial jobless claims to a six-year low mean that the odds on the Fed beginning to taper QE3 next month have shortened further. 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home sales likely to drop back before year end The recent uptick in existing homes sales most likely reflects a rush by home buyers to complete deals before mortgage rates rise further. However, this has only pulled forward sales that would have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Respite from French recession, but recovery hopes overblown Q2’s 0.5% quarterly rise in French GDP, which was the strongest in over two years, has prompted optimism that the economy has finally joined Germany on a path to solid growth. But while we have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will MBS be tapered first or last and does it matter for housing? Although the Fed may opt for the simplicity of running down purchases of both Treasuries and MBS simultaneously, we think that it makes sense to leave tapering of MBS purchases for last. That said... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
