China Economics Update Gains from interest rate liberalisation being overplayed High hopes are being pinned on interest rate liberalisation to inject some vitality into China’s economy. But the full gains from liberalisation will only be realised if the government is willing to... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary conditions to stay loose despite Fed tapering We expect the Fed to begin to scale back its monetary stimulus in September, but the tapering process will be slow and US interest rates will remain low for an extended period. Moreover, central banks... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul 13.) Household borrowing is continuing to expand, but fairly modestly. Despite fears that the Bank of England’s commitment to low interest rates will spark another credit boom, the main problem still seems... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & CPI (Aug.)/ Unemployment (Jul 13.) August’s EC survey added to evidence of a moderate recovery in the euro-zone, but July’s unemployment figures confirm that this is not yet boosting the labour market. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery driven by exports The breakdown of Q2 Polish GDP data underlined that its tentative economic turnaround is largely a result of stronger external demand. But with the recovery in the euro-zone set to be modest, growth... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul. 13) Net lending to commercial property was particularly weak in July, although we would be very wary of jumping to the conclusion that banks have abandoned forbearance. Indeed, we suspect that further... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) & Mortgage Lending (Jul.) The housing market appears to be gaining traction, with a further rise in house prices and mortgage lending. But talk of a new housing boom is wide of the mark. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug. 13 ) The improving trend in consumer sentiment provides some hope that the recent rises in household spending will be maintained even though consumers’ real incomes are still being squeezed. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q2) The Danish economy grew at a decent clip in Q2 on the back of strong export growth, but household deleveraging means that growth over the coming year will fall short of consensus forecasts. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies still under pressure African currencies have come under renewed pressure in August, with the South African rand and the Ghanaian cedi suffering more than most. But while currencies have weakened, local equity markets have... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s industrial production and labour market data show that the recovery should continue in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the ongoing rise in consumer price inflation is still largely a reflection... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily A recovery in emerging market currencies may be on the cards 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q2 13) The Danish economy grew at a decent clip in Q2 on the back of strong exportg rowth, but household deleveraging means that growth over the coming year will fall short of consensus forecasts. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update QRM proposals are a step towards looser mortgage credit The proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule is a welcome simplification and relaxation of earlier proposals which, if enacted, will help to loosen mortgage credit conditions. But the inclusion of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rupee and rupiah take a hit, signs of resilience elsewhere Asia has borne the brunt of the EM currency sell-off this month with the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah the worst performers in the emerging world. The currencies of Thailand and the Philippines... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
