The severity of the slowdown in the Polish economy over the past 18 months took commentators and policymakers by surprise. The good news is that the slowdown appears to have been largely cyclical in nature and that most of Poland’s previous drivers of growth now seem to be strengthening, albeit gradually. Poland is unlikely to return to the growth rates of 6% or so seen in the 2006/07 boom years, but growth rates of 4% a year would be perfectly attainable. Meanwhile, ample spare capacity means inflation pressures are likely to remain muted.
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