Europe Commercial Property Update Italian office capital values look set to fall further The low level of confidence in the Italian service sector throughout 2013 is consistent with the underperformance of office capital values versus retail. But while services confidence has since risen... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar 14.) With industrial production rising at a decent pace in March, the economy is now starting to show its true colours after the weakness triggered by the bleakest of winters. There is scope for production... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe recovers as Russia struggles The latest activity data show that the recovery in Central Europe that started in the second half of last year gathered pace in Q1. Our GDP trackers suggest that growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar 14.) The below-expectations increase in housing starts in March, which made up for only one-fifth of earlier weather-related falls, suggests that the shortage of labour and lots is constraining the... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal drag easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously anticipated. This should provide some support for the global recovery both this year and next. However, the longer-term... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update IMF’s new growth forecasts underscore growing vulnerabilities The IMF last week made significant downward revisions to its economic growth forecasts for sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2014-15, leaving them close in line with our own. Indeed, this is another sign... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fears of a hard-landing overdone The marginally stronger-than-consensus Q1 GDP data and broad stability in March growth figures suggest that concerns over the state of China’s economy are overdone. The economy is likely to weaken... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What China’s GDP data should mean for commodities China’s official GDP data for the first quarter, released earlier today, could reasonably be interpreted either positively or negatively for commodities. The commonest reaction appears to be relief... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France’s reform effort inches forward Although France’s short-term outlook remains weak, the new French Government’s recent policy announcements provide hope that France is slowly tackling its significant competitiveness problems. 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar 14.) The latest labour market figures showing that average earnings are finally rising at a faster rate than prices mark another major milestone in the economy’s recovery. 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q4 13) Jobs growth in the financial & business services (FBS) sector at the end of 2013 was very strong. New office completions will weigh a little on City and West End rents this year, but strong demand... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Santos on course for re-election A victory for Juan Manuel Santos in next month’s Colombian presidential election may be welcomed bythe markets, but it is unlikely to herald the beginning of structural reforms. As such, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Still too soon to call the turn The main upward pressures on commodity prices have recently been coming from the supply-side, including weather shocks (many agriculturals), export bans (some industrial metals), and unplanned outages... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB get the euro down? The ECB’s battle against deflation is turning into a fight to lower the euro exchange rate. But it is far from clear that the central bank will act sufficiently to bring the currency down far enough. 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar 14.) The rebound in CPI inflation to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, is partly due to the reversal of the base effects that pushed it down in February. Nonetheless, more permanent trends will lift both headline... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
