Still too soon to call the turn

The main upward pressures on commodity prices have recently been coming from the supply-side, including weather shocks (many agriculturals), export bans (some industrial metals), and unplanned outages (crude oil). Most of these pressures are likely to be temporary, suggesting that prices will fall back again. The near-term prospects for demand are generally weak and the price of copper in particular faces another leg down. But there are plenty of exceptions where we remain positive on the outlook, notably for the prices of gold and US natural gas.