Global Trade Monitor Sluggish EM exports holding back global trade World trade appears to have been sluggish throughout the first quarter of 2014, despite evidence that economic activity picked up. This is due to a downturn in exports from the major emerging... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there slack among the self-employed? The sharp rise in self-employment is one reason among many to think that the unemployment rate understates the amount of slack in the labour market and the broader economy. 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) Although durable goods orders rose by a decent 2.6% m/m in March, the details of the survey suggest that the growth rate of business investment in equipment slowed down to roughly 2.0% annualised in... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Breaking out above 200,000 The monthly gains in payroll employment may soon rise above the 200,000 that have been the norm for most of the past year. This would be partly due to some catch-up after the recent extreme winter... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors flee China’s equity market Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is an El Niño a risk to EM inflation? The current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world shows no signs of nearing an end. One possible risk to the outlook is an El Niño, which weather forecasters warn could be on its way, and... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño will only provide temporary support to commodity prices An El Niño weather event appears likely in the second half of 2014, which may disrupt the supply of some commodities. The disruption could lead to sharply higher prices where stocks are already low or... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) Although the strength of April’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey partly reflects an Easter-related boost, underlying growth in retail sales appears to be strong. 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: oil sector boom masks medium-term weakness A combination of rising oil production and investment into its offshore hydrocarbons sector is likely to underpin strong economic growth in Angola over the next couple of years. But history suggests... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q1 14) Commercial property development activity continues to rise strongly and every region is contributing to the expansion. This is another signal of a positive outlook. 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s Ifo survey supported the message from other recent surveys that the steady recovery in the German economy has continued into the second quarter. But a further marked acceleration seems... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s rate hiking cycle has a long way to go The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, and made it clear in its statement that more rate hikes are on the way. Although the RBNZ’s own forecasts have not... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Steady recovery to continue in Korea Korea’s economy recorded another quarter of solid growth in the first quarter of the year thanks to a rebound in investment and continued recovery in export demand. Looking ahead, the economy should... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the renewed enthusiasm for EM Asia equities continue? 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recovery gains momentum The past month has seen Latin American financial markets perform fairly well, building on the momentum of March’s rebound. But despite the recent gains, we expect some renewed downside this year amid... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the outperformance of Dublin’s office market coming to an end? All sectors of the Dublin property market received a boost from tightening yields during the first quarter. However, while there seems scope for further yield compression in the retail and industrial... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
