Africa Chart Pack Nigeria rises to top of the pile Following significant revisions to historical GDP data, Nigeria was confirmed as the largest economy in Africa earlier this month. Measured GDP has almost doubled to US$510bn, placing Nigeria... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s consumers still far from healthy Rising consumer confidence in India suggests that the long-running slump in consumption may soon come to an end. However, any recovery in household spending is likely to be muted as consumers continue... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Downward pressures easing, but not for long Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth stabilised during the course of the first quarter. Nonetheless, we expect weakness in real estate construction to cause the economy to slow again... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Slower growth in China won’t derail Asia’s export recovery Export growth from Emerging Asia remains lacklustre. Things should improve over the next couple of years on the back of a recovery in the developed world, which should more than compensate for weaker... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation outlook deteriorates The Central Bank of Egypt kept interest rates on hold today and, with the outlook for inflation deteriorating, they are likely to remain unchanged for the next six to twelve months. 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The Ukraine crisis and Russia: five key questions With Russia facing further sanctions from the West over its alleged involvement in the turmoil in the east of Ukraine, in this Focus we answer five key questions about the potential economic and... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Aggressive interest rate hikes unlikely in Colombia We do not think that the Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) surprise decision to increase interest rates by 25bp to 3.5% on Friday marks the beginning of an aggressive tightening cycle. With economic... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spread of forecasts at least as revealing as the median The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the second of this month’s two Board meetings on Wednesday. However, there should still be plenty of... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The surge in retail sales ahead of the consumption tax hike needs to be seen together with a likely plunge this month. However, we remain confident that the recovery in consumer spending will resume... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan’s exports pick up again? Japan’s exports have been broadly flat in recent years, reflecting a mix of cyclical headwinds (such as weak global demand) and structural pressures (notably the shift in production capacity abroad)... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the recovery continue without housing? The apparent crumbling in the housing recovery has, at least temporarily, removed a valuable support to GDP growth. But the wider economic recovery will carry on regardless and it may not be long... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling's strength should not derail the recovery While this week’s GDP figures for the first quarter look set to confirm that the economic recovery has gained further momentum, one potential threat to the sustainability of the recovery is the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The unhelpful divergence between France and Germany Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone recovery gained more traction at the start of Q2. But there remains a worrying divergence between France and Germany which risks holding back the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
