Spread of forecasts at least as revealing as the median

The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the second of this month’s two Board meetings on Wednesday. However, there should still be plenty of interest in the Board’s updated forecasts for growth and inflation, which will include the first projections for FY 2016. The headlines usually look no further than the median forecasts, but the diversity of views could actually tell us more about the outlook for monetary policy. We continue to expect substantial further easing in 2015, which should weaken the yen and revive the Nikkei.