US Economics Focus Productivity growth held back by structural problems The slowdown in trend productivity growth, which began a decade ago, is principally due to two structural factors; the fading boost from the IT revolution and the aging of the population. The... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too soon to write off Japan as an export powerhouse The swing in Japan’s trade balance from large surpluses to large deficits is back in the news after the March data (released yesterday) confirmed a record shortfall in the fiscal year just ended... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets hope The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions on QE in the euro-zone The European Central Bank (ECB) appears finally to be seriously considering the option of implementing quantitative easing (QE). While we have long argued that QE in the euro-zone was a more likely... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.14) The latest small decline in existing home sales cannot easily be passed off as weather-related weakness, as those regions which suffered most from the severe weather saw sales bounce back in March... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to bounce back in Q2 The incoming data over the past few weeks suggest that activity and employment rebounded in March, as the weather-related distortion that affected the winter months began to unwind. Our latest... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Return of investment to boost Mexican GDP growth Mexican investment has been weak for the past two years, but we do not think that the economy is heading for a Brazilian-style capacity crunch. Business investment has been relatively buoyant, and... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is LNG the route to a global natural gas price? Global LNG supply is set to soar over the next five years as a number of large projects in Australia come on stream and the US starts to export. The greater availability of more flexible gas supply... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Q4 GDP growth picks up on back of rebound in oil sector The Saudi Arabian economy picked up in Q4 of last year on the back of the continued rebound in the oil sector. Growth may have accelerated further in Q1, but it is likely to remain below the rates of... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) The expansion in the broad money aggregates has ground to a halt in the last two months. Bank lending is slowing now, too, even though financial conditions remain very accommodative. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia’s Q1 GDP data Most economies in the region are due to release Q1 GDP data over the next few weeks. OurGDP tracker suggests economic growth was broadly unchanged in Emerging Asia (excludingChina) from Q4. The Newly... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Looser credit conditions, lower loan rates and the stronger economic outlook have continued to boost bank lending to businesses. This supports our view that business investment growth will accelerate... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Mar.) The widening of the trade deficit in March should be followed by smaller shortfalls in coming months as consumers rein in spending in the wake of the consumption tax hike. 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Q2 economic rebound will mask deteriorating fundamentals As the effects of the severe winter weather subside in the second quarter, the resulting bounce back in GDP growth could be misinterpreted as a sign of improving fundamentals rather than a short-lived... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real pay finally turns the corner Last week’s labour market figures brought the long-awaited news that pay growth has finally begun to exceed inflation. Granted, real earnings are still 10% below their pre-recession peak and signs... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off winter malaise The more data we see on economic activity in March, the more we're reassured that the drop-off in the preceding few months was almost entirely due to the unseasonably severe winter weather. 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
