UK Economic Outlook Is the pay squeeze finally over? In this edition of our UK Quarterly Review, we take a close look at the outlook for earnings. After enduring the biggest decline in real wages since the 1920s, are workers finally set to see the... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) The decline in the Teranet measure of house price inflation to 4.6% in March, from 5.0%, reflects the earlier drop back in existing home sales. We expect sales to continue falling, eventually... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia would be the main casualty of a “gas war” There would be very few winners from any further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, but Russia still has more to lose in economic and financial terms than the West. In particular, Western European... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB belatedly waking up to deflation dangers Recent speeches from officials suggest that the ECB has finally accepted that the threat of deflation in the euro-zone warrants further policy action. But it is far from clear that any action will be... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The leap in retail sales in March is mainly due to the unwinding of the distortion caused by the unusually bad weather in previous months. This means first-quarter real consumption growth was probably... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities mean weak growth, not crisis We have been warning for a very long time that the recent period of strong growth in Latin America has been built on shaky foundations. With external vulnerabilities mounting, several countries in the... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s euro-zone industrial production figures confirmed that the sector has made a weak start to 2014 and highlighted the slow and fragile recovery both in industry and in the euro-zone economy... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth picks up in Q1 on rebound in oil sector Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy accelerated to around 5% y/y in the first few months of this year. The pick-up in growth has been driven by the oil sector. However, there are... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's economy set for solid growth in 2014 Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy barely expanded in Q1. Recovering global demand should, nevertheless, ensure solid growth over the rest of 2014. As such, the MAS saw no reason to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian manufacturing struggling for momentum Weak industrial output in February has dented hopes of a manufacturing-led rebound in India's economy. With prospects for domestic demand looking downbeat, India's economic recovery will remain slow... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets shouldn't place so much trust in the Fed The markets have begun to heed the Fed’s bizarre warnings to ignore its own interest rate projections. But they shouldn’t be so trusting, especially when the minutes of the mid-March FOMC meeting... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada stuck between a rock and a hard place Canada's economic performance over the second half of last year was slightly stronger than the Bank of Canada had assumed at the start of the year, but there have been few signs of the rotation in... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek debt issue doesn't end the broader crisis Greece’s return to the bond markets last week might appear to mark the end of the euro-zone crisis which began when the true extent of the same country’s fiscal problems came to light in 2010. But... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much spare capacity is left? If Japan is to succeed in escaping deflation, growth will have to pick up sufficiently to eliminate the margin of spare capacity - the so-called output gap - that has kept price pressures subdued... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
