Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation head in opposite directions The latest jump in inflation in Brazil will put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates further, despite having signalled an end to monetary tightening at last month’s COPOM meeting. In... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How long will Brussels retail rents remain on hold? An increased preference amongst occupiers for shopping centre space and a run-down of leasing incentives probably help to explain why headline shop rents in Brussels have now been flat for three years... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for global real interest rates? Continued high savings rates in emerging economies and weak investment in advanced economies suggest that real interest rates will remain low for many years. In addition, policy-makers have a strong... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A look back at Zuma’s first term South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, looks set to triumph in next month’s election despite – rather than because of – the performance of the economy during his first term in office. Looking ahead... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How sustainable is the Saudi consumer credit boom? There appears to be a growing consensus that improvements in the Saudi Arabian labour market mean that the country can sustain rapid consumer credit growth. While we think there is some justification... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Feb.) February’s trade figures showed that the economy is still struggling to rebalance towards exports. And in the coming years, progress is likely to be slow at best while demand in the euro-zone remains... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals greater chance of a rate cut The Swedish Riksbank pushed back the date at which it expects to start raising interest rates and signalled that the probability of a rate cut in the near term has grown. We continue to think that low... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Pacific Alliance: Trading up? The Pacific Alliance pact has raised hopes of a boom in intra-regional trade, but the high degree of overlap between the export baskets of the member nations makes that unlikely. Nonetheless, the... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Isolated incident won't derail Malaysia-China economic ties The disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 a month ago has raised concerns about the prospects for Malaysia's tourism sector and the country's relationship with China. But while the tourism... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals greater chance of a rate cut The Swedish Riksbank pushed back the date at which it expects to start raising interest rates and signalled that the probability of a rate cut in the near term has grown. We continue to think that low... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market equities back in favour The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has returned nearly 3% in local currency terms since this time last month. At least three factors may explain why emerging market equities have been on the mend. First... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Latest labour market data refute Yellen's slack claims The latest round of jobs data released over the past few days would appear to refute Fed Chair Janet Yellen's recent claims that there is still considerable slack in the labour market. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where and why we differ from the IMF The IMF downgraded its expectations for EM growth in today’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), bringing its forecasts a step closer to our own. Nonetheless, while there is now not much difference between... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing downturn will drag on for much longer The recent slowdown in housing starts is just the beginning of a long-term correction that will dampen economic growth this year and next. If, as we expect, new home sales soften further, in response... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Better second half in store for the Nikkei There are good reasons to be cautious on the near-term prospects for the Nikkei, but we expect equities in Japan to outperform those in other major developed markets over the rest of the year. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
