Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira at risk if Turkish MPC starts to ease policy The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has caused the central bank’s (CBRT’s) MPC to adopt a more dovish stance, with Governor Basci suggesting that measures might be taken this month to loosen... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Unplanned supply outages keeping oil prices high Large unplanned supply outages have helped keep oil prices high over the last three years, despite a surge in production from the US. We expect the factors holding back supply to ease over the next... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update GDP revisions push Nigeria to top of the pile in Africa Measured GDP in Nigeria has almost doubled as a result of methodology changes announced this weekend, confirming it as the region’s largest economy and highlighting the significant development of the... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary opts for another four more years of Orbanomics Prime Minister Orban’s Fidesz party swept to victory in yesterday’s parliamentary election in Hungary and, in the very near term, his premiership is likely to come alongside a strengthening economic... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is Jokowi the man to get Indonesia back on track? Indonesia’s elections get underway later this month. They come at a crucial time, with the economy stuttering and confidence in the current leadership at a low ebb. The presidential favourite, Joko... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Kurodanomics working? The Bank of Japan has become much more aggressive since Mr. Kuroda took over a year ago. The central bank’s “shock and awe” approach is a welcome departure from the gradualist ways of previous... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising wage growth no threat to the inflation outlook The recent acceleration in wage inflation is an encouraging sign, especially considering the excess slack in labour markets and still uncertain economic outlook. For these and other reasons, however... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Farmland: Is the bubble bursting? The rapid run-up in the price of farmland appears to be over. We suspect that the slowdown in the growth rate of farmland prices last year will develop into an outright decline in prices this year, at... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Productivity cloud should lift in time Figures released last week confirmed that the weakness of productivity growth continues to hang like a cloud of Saharan dust over the medium-term outlook for the economy. Not only has productivity... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices will still struggle this year Aluminium prices have been falling since 2011, despite solid growth in demand. The underlying problem is the scale of excess capacity and output in China which will remain a drag this year at least... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is US corporate credit risk becoming mispriced? The credit spreads of US corporate bonds fell further in March. At around 1.7%, the spread over Treasuries of those with a 7-10 year maturity and BBB rating is now below its average of the last... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Employment increased by a robust 42,900 in March, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-month low of 6.9%, from 7.0%. Unfortunately, the bulk of the net jobs created last month were apparently... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The solid 192,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, along with the bounce back in average weekly hours worked to a four-month high of 34.5, from 34.3, confirms that the recent spate of weakness... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rate hikes still a distant prospect With inflation falling faster and slack in the labour market being used up more slowly than the MPC expected in February’s Inflation Report, the decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at this month’s... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US rebounds but China and Japan slowing The global economy is healing, but the pace of recovery differs markedly between countries. The US is now rebounding from its weather-induced slowdown and the euro-zone is steadily gaining momentum... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
