China Economics Update Second bond default signals normalisation, not crisis Reports today of another small bond default in China are a sign of the growing maturity of the country’s bond market. Still, while investors are now paying more attention to credit risks, it is not... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growing steadily A range of business surveys published today and yesterday suggest that global manufacturing output is still growing at a reasonable pace, led by the US. However, the euro-zone’s recovery has continued... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recently published data show that Italy and Spain made little headway in strengthening their fiscal positions in 2013, but Portugal exceeded its targets. More encouragingly, most of the periphery... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The trivial increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 53.7 in March, from 53.2, suggests that the sector is slowly recovering from the weather-related disruption at the start of the year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery in late 2013 has now fizzled out The final estimate of 2013 GDP data reveals that Russia’s economy picked up a little pace towards the end of last year. But our GDP Tracker suggests that the recovery had already started to fizzle out... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack China fears weigh on industrial metal prices There was considerable variation in individual commodity price movements in March. Weak Chinese economic data weighed on both industrial metals and energy prices, but the prices of some agricultural... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) The CoreLogic measure reported that house prices continued to rise rapidly in February. However, the recent loosening in supply conditions suggests that runaway house price inflation will not continue... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation heading in the wrong direction (again) Inflation in Brazil appears to be accelerating once again, and may have been as high as 6% y/y last month. A combination of droughts and a weaker exchange rate are contributing to the problem. But the... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa PMI points to manufacturing slowdown in Q1 The South African manufacturing PMI fell back in March and, taking Q1 as a whole, the survey indicates that the sector has been growing by around 1% y/y in the early part of 2014. This is weaker than... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) & Final Manu. PMI (Mar.) February’s euro-zone labour market figures underlined the fact that the economic recovery is still far too weak to make a significant dent in the high level of unemployment across the currency union. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & FPC Record (Mar.) Although March’s CIPS manufacturing report indicated that the sector’s recovery may have lost some steam over the first quarter, this seems unlikely to herald the beginning of a renewed slowdown. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus: one year on Although the Cypriot economy has proven surprisingly resilient over the past year, its future still looks bleak. In common with a number of euro-zone economies, Cyprus is at risk of a prolonged period... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rates set to remain at a standstill The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left interest rates unchanged today, and we suspect that its rate hiking cycle is at an end. However, tackling inflation is still the RBI's main priority, which means... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Survey evidence continues to bode well for 2014 The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital (REC) survey confirms that the strong recovery in non-prime property segments has continued in the first few months of 2014. It also highlighted some concerns... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing recovery intact, but to stay slow-going The March PMIs for Emerging Asia were a mixed bag, reinforcing our view that Asia's manufacturing recovery is likely to remain bumpy. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
