Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s fall in euro-zone consumer price inflation probably partly reflected temporary factors relating to the timing of Easter. But the weakness of inflation suggests that the ECB may need to take... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb. 14) Net property lending by banks and building societies in February was the least negative since June last year. Although we shouldn’t read too much into one month’s data, this is another sign that... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.14) Although likely to be temporary, today’s sharp fall in mortgage approvals should go some way towards calming fears that the housing market recovery is rapidly spiralling out of control. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update AK party’s support may suffer from weakening growth Turkish municipal election results showed that PM Erdogan and the ruling AK party continue to enjoy high levels of popularity, bolstered by the strength of the economy. Nonetheless, in spite of today... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today's data show that Japan's manufacturing sector lost some speed ahead of tomorrow's increase in the consumption tax. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cuts won't trigger housing rally The decision by Canada's large banks to cut fixed mortgage rates ahead of the typically busy Spring home buying season won't boost sagging home sales. With housing so unaffordable, mortgage rates... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation still on track for 1% The further fall in CPI inflation in February is unlikely to be the last this year. Past movements in global commodity prices, recent announcements by energy suppliers and the emergence of a... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to stress about the banks While a handful of banks “failed” the Fed’s latest stress tests, the sector as a whole has enough capital to continue lending to domestic businesses and households even if it had to absorb further... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Lacklustre Q1 growth to keep the pressure on the ECB Survey data for March provided an insight into how the euro-zone fared over Q1. While they suggested that the recovery probably gained a little momentum in the first quarter, they remain consistent... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan really investing too much? Japan invests a larger share of its income in machinery and equipment than most other advanced countries, while generating rather tepid returns. Some are suggesting that Japan would be better served... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export outperformance won't reignite Vietnam's economy Vietnam's exports have been a rare bright spot for its struggling economy in recent years, mainly owing to the country's success in attracting foreign manufacturers that want a low-cost alternative to... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recovery still fuelled by lower saving The latest data on the state of households’ finances confirmed our fears that the recovery in spending over recent quarters has been driven largely by consumers saving less. But the consumer recovery... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in China's demand for oil to weigh on prices We expect China’s oil demand to continue to grow at a sluggish pace over the next few years. However, rather than this primarily being due to slower economic growth, we would put more emphasis on... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Rocky road to elections despite better data Argentina’s new national accounts data add to the impression that the government is cleaning up its act and moving towards more orthodox policymaking. But with the economy in the midst of a slow... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian easing cycle at an end The deterioration in the inflation outlook and concerns about triggering a sell-off in the currency caused the National Bank of Romania to bring its easing cycle to an end. But, barring a sharp fall... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
