Europe Commercial Property Update Will the recent outperformance of Frankfurt office rents continue? A broad-based economic recovery combined with a modest development pipeline points to rents in the major German office markets making steady gains over the next few years. Yet the recent pick-up in... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) The rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in March provides another indication that the euro-zone economic recovery has built up a little momentum in the early months of... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Feb. 14) Rising at just over 5% y/y, the Land Registry house price index shows a rather less frothy picture than the main lenders' indices. It also emphasises how big a role London is playing in driving up the... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The national accounts for the fourth quarter presented a mixed report card on the economy’s progress towards rebalancing. 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How useful are central banks' own interest rate forecasts? The Fed’s recent changes to its forward guidance mean that market participants are likely to scrutinise interest rate forecasts by Fed officials more closely than they have done in the past. However... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Recovery in occupier demand and rents broadens All-property rental values increased by 0.1%m/m in February, enough to boost the annual growth rate to 1%. That was the best figure since August 2008. The office rental recovery continues to lead, but... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Effects of China’s slowdown to vary across the region Concerns over the impact on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) of a further slowdown in China have resurfaced over the past couple of weeks. While we do not expect China to experience a hard landing, we do... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s GfK/NOP survey showed that consumers remain in buoyant mood and supports our expectation that the recovery in household spending will maintain its recent momentum. 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer spending was sluggish in February, but the real surge ahead of next month's consumption tax hike will only show up in the March figures. Meanwhile, there are further signs that underlying... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will foreigners' enthusiasm for Spanish government debt wane? 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing is at a crossroad The housing recovery is at a crossroad. We expect looser supply conditions to drive a moderation in house price gains over the next year. But our forecasts assume that declining investor demand will... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB Watch - More policy action still ahead Developments over the last month have not clearly met either of the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action. Nonetheless, the ongoing danger of deflation and dovish signals from several... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equities continue to outperform Equity markets in the MENA region continue to soar. Dubai’s market has been the region’s best performer since the start of the year, closely followed by that of Egypt, which has been buoyed by... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our non-consensus calls At first sight, many of our views now look close to the consensus. However, this is typically because other analysts have swung round to our long-held positions, which have mostly been proved right... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the long-term unemployed ever get back to work? If there is little prospect of getting the long-term unemployed, who account for an unusually large share of the overall jobless rate, back into work then wage growth could accelerate faster than the... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
