Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for a while yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, amid signs that the non-mining economy continues to improve. Policy loosening remains off the agenda for now, but we still think... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Taken at face value, today's PMIs appear to offer conflicting messages. In practice however, their divergence provides useful clues into the state of the manufacturing sector, suggesting that large... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) Japan's consumers continue to face severe headwinds as strong employment gains remain insufficient to compensate for falling real wages. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The improvement in business conditions last quarter fell short of expectations, and the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey suggests that growth will slow sharply in the second quarter of this year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) February’s money and lending figures provide further reassurance that the economic recovery has maintained its strong pace this year and is not being powered by a surge in credit. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North African economies accelerate, but clouds on the outlook Recently released GDP data showed that growth in the North African economies (Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) picked up modestly in the final quarter of last year. We expect growth to strengthen further... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gulf between US & German bond yields looks set to widen The spread between the yields of 10-year US and German government bonds is close to the largest it has been since the start of EMU. But we think the spread will continue to grow. With this in mind, we... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Liquidity tightens again The renminbi weakened against the dollar in March for a second month in a row but it is still one of the emerging world’s better performing currencies over the past year. Meanwhile, a renewed... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Next president must be a reformer It seems unlikely that the next Colombian president will be able to rely on a booming natural resources sector to support economic growth. As such, if Juan Manuel Santos is successful in seeking re... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PCE inflation won't be this low for long The fall in PCE inflation to just 0.9% in February probably marks the low point in this cycle and we suspect that the Fed will be surprised by how fast inflation rebounds over the next 18 months. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The stronger than expected 0.5% m/m rebound in January's GDP, which fully reversed December's weather-related contraction, suggests that bad weather had a smaller effect on first-quarter activity than... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is France resolving its problems? France is beginning to tackle its long-standing economic problems. Although a weak labour market and additional fiscal austerity will weigh on the economy this year, growth should pick up in 2015... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers signal preference for “fine-tuning” over stimulus With the People's Bank pushing interbank rates higher and senior figures ruling out significant fiscal and monetary loosening, market hopes of a stimulus package for China are likely to be... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Although overall household borrowing rose in February, the sharp fall in mortgage approvals suggests that activity in the housing market may be stabilising. Accordingly, the housing recovery does not... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A mixed month for Asian currencies After a solid bounce across the board in February, the performance of most Asian currencies and equity markets was muted over the past month. That said, investors were still showing improved appetite... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
