North African economies accelerate, but clouds on the outlook

Recently released GDP data showed that growth in the North African economies (Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) picked up modestly in the final quarter of last year. We expect growth to strengthen further this year, with Egypt benefitting from Gulf-funded stimulus packages, while stronger growth in key eurozone trading partners should support Moroccan and Tunisian exports. Nonetheless, the recoveries will remain vulnerable to a fresh flare-up of political tensions.