UK Economics Weekly The makers march on Last week’s official industrial production figures provided an encouraging sign that the sector’s recovery may have gathered pace in the first quarter. Indeed, even if production only held steady in... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Four risks to watch out for in Emerging Asia Our recently published Emerging Asia Outlook paints a fairly benign picture of the region’s growth prospects, with most economies set to make a gradual recovery in 2014-15. This Weekly looks at some... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower jumbo-conforming spread a positive for mortgage lending The unprecedented negative spread between jumbo and conforming mortgage interest rates did not last for long. But the normalisation of the gap between jumbo and conforming rates marks an important... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April reflects a reversal of the earlier weather-related hit to confidence, as well as record high stock markets and improving labour market conditions. These... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A new route for foreigners to invest in China’s equities The introduction of a new scheme allowing global investors to access Shanghai’s equity market is China’s latest step to relax controls on its cross-border capital flows. The announcement gave a brief... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What are the prospects for distribution warehouses? Distribution warehouse rents have not picked up as quickly over the past year or so as we thought they would. But output in the distributive trade sector of the economy is growing strongly and tenant... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold – some small cuts possible this year Peruvian interest rates were left unchanged at 4% last night and we think that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that there is little room for aggressive easing this year as... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Despite a seasonal pick-up in food inflation, today's data provide further evidence that general price pressures remain subdued. 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's return to the market may not be all positive Greece’s successful bond issue highlights the progress that the country has made in recent years. But an increased use of market funding creates its own risks for Greece’s recovery. 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's soybean demand is likely to slump later this year We think that the drivers of the recent surge in grain and soybean prices are likely to prove temporary. Lower demand from China coupled with large harvests from Brazil should put downward pressure on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update One more leg down in copper prices still to come The consensus is finally coming round to our long-held bearish view on the price of copper, but we still think there will be one last (big) move lower. The most likely trigger is disappointment at the... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously forecast, which should provide some support for the global recovery in the coming year or two. But the longer-term outlook... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can Mr Osborne declare victory? While the UK economy may have withstood the fiscal consolidation rather better than the IMF and other critics anticipated, there are reasons why George Osborne may want to think twice before declaring... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Activity measures will strengthen again soon The recent housing market activity data have been weak more or less across the board, with new and existing homes sales, as well as housing starts, all declining in February. These falls were largely... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
