Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rate cuts looking unlikely as inflation outlook deteriorates Egyptian inflation has fallen back in recent months as the effects of last year’s sharp depreciation of the pound have started to unwind. But with the economy starting to recover and the outlook for... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What explains falls in Swiss office rental values? Falls in office rental values in Zurich and Geneva seem at odds with the growing Swiss economy. But for Zurich at least, weakness in the financial services sector seems to explain why office take-up... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth still sluggish EM-wide exports fell in February and, while this may be due in part to distortions in the Chinese data, the bigger picture is that EM export growth has been sluggish for the past two years. There are... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate hikes remain distant given inflation outlook With inflation falling and plenty of slack still left in the labour market, today’s no-change decision by the MPC is likely to have been unanimous again. And with the UK set for a favourable period of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar 14.) Today's trade data should be interpreted with care, as sharp contractions in trade with Hong Kong and Taiwan appear to be distorting the broader picture. Exports to other regions actually grew 7.8% y... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports prove resilient, for now China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly in the first quarter of this year despite slowing industrial activity. However, we think it is too soon to conclude that growth in commodity demand is... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Domestic challenges coming into focus Most countries in Emerging Asia should enjoy a steady recovery over the next couple of years on the back of loose monetary policy and a pickup in demand from advanced economies. However, a number of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.14) The March RICS housing survey indicates that housing market activity continues to grow at a steady pace. A reluctance to put homes up for sale is putting upwards pressure on house prices, but we... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Bank of Korea governor in no rush to tighten policy The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today for the eleventh consecutive month in what was Lee Ju-yeol’s first meeting as new governor. As a former deputy governor with 35 years of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) Machinery orders fell back sharply in February, and current levels point to broadly stagnant non-residential investment. However, declining spare capacity suggests that capital expenditure should... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the sidelines for time being We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will retain its neutral bias on rates in next week's policy statement, although some dovish tweaks might surprise markets. Economic growth remains unbalanced... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are gold prices to rising real yields? All else being equal, the return of US inflation-adjusted interest rates to more normal levels might be expected to lead to a sharp fall in the gold price. However, we expect the pace of normalisation... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain loose as economy strengthens Following the decision to leave interest rates on hold earlier today, Governor Belka acknowledged that the Polish economy appears to be undergoing a strong recovery at this afternoon’s post-meeting... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What is the outlook for global real yields? One development that is likely to cap future rises in long-term government bond yields in some of the major advanced economies is the persistence of exceptionally loose monetary policy. But this is... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
