Global Markets Outlook Steady as she goes We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low stocks will put upward pressure on US natural gas prices Extremely low levels of natural gas stocks in the US are likely to put upward pressure on prices over the rest of this year and potentially even into 2015. 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a four-month high of 54.9 in April, from 53.7, illustrates that the factory sector is still getting back to normal after the earlier weather-related... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Phase two of forward guidance won’t hasten rate hikes The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on Thursday 8th May will be the first to be taken under the second phase of forward guidance. But we don’t expect that to have much of a bearing on its... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Dovish tone to hint at action next month We doubt that recent events and data releases have been significant enough to ensure more policy action from the ECB at its May meeting. But developments in the inflation outlook and in money markets... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflation in the Gulf may be reaching a bottom A drop in food inflation has caused inflationary pressures to ease across much of the Gulf over the past twelve months. But inflation may now be bottoming out. Food inflation is set to pick-up again... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF approves Ukraine deal, but enormous challenges remain The approval by the IMF of its $17bn financial support package for Ukraine is likely to ease concerns that the economy could suffer a near-term crisis, but severe challenges remain. The short-term... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bigger investment plan boosts Mexican outlook The Mexican government’s plan to oversee investment projects worth a cumulative 46% of GDP, including an overhaul of the energy industry, should go a long way to ensuring that the economy is Latin... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) Whilst March’s money and credit data suggested that the housing market recovery may be coming off the boil, there are signs that the consumer recovery is finally feeding through into stronger... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are inflation expectations still well anchored? Although survey measures of short-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply, medium-term forecasts have so far remained well anchored. However, with deflationary pressures building, a de... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply fears underpin commodity prices Many commodity prices rose in April, boosted by supply concerns around industrial metals, agricultural commodities and crude oil. In particular, the price of coffee surged again after early harvests... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.) & Mortgage Approvals (Mar.) The latest data on the manufacturing sector and household borrowing have provided some further encouraging evidence of a rebalancing of the UK’s economic recovery away from excessive dependence on... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.14) The run of negative, net commercial property lending flows extended to 28 months in March. But we suspect that, within the net figure, gross new lending by banks and building societies will be slowly... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr 14.) & Mortgage Lending (Mar 14.) The Nationwide reported a robust rise in house prices in April, pushing the annual rate into double-digits for the first time in almost four years. But mortgage approvals fell again in March, which... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does high Czech consumer confidence imply for retail property? Czech consumer confidence hit a six-year high in April. Yet the labour market is still weak and the recent strong pace of growth in retail sales may overstate the underlying health of consumer demand... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr 14.) Today’s second successive pick-up in the official PMI is another piece of evidence that economic conditions have stabilised somewhat recently. This should ease concerns of an imminent hard landing... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
